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Brexit causing less of a drag on UK growth, but uncertainty measures could shift quickly - BOE’s Forbes

Bank of England (BOE) policymaker Kristin Forbes at a scheduled speech at the JP Morgan Cazenove "Best of British" Conference, in London said that Brexit uncertainty has proved to be less of a drag on UK growth than traditional thinking.

Forbes however warned that uncertainty measures could shift quickly. She noted that uncertainty could rise or fall quickly after Britain starts formal talks to leave the EU, and some of its effects on investment, wages and productivity would only be visible after "substantial lag", she added.

"The strength of the UK economy during the period of heightened uncertainty before and after the referendum on EU membership suggests that uncertainty is dragging less on growth than has traditionally occurred," she Forbes.

Forbes said central banks should not use uncertainty as an excuse to avoid making decisions or for the BoE to change its approach to setting policy. Forbes added that BoE will also try to curb uncertainty. At the BoE's August policy meeting Forbes had voted against restarting government bond purchases.

In their November update the BoE cited uncertainty about the demand outlook and future trade arrangements as the biggest drag on investment intentions. Even the MPC minutes have recently set a record of averaging 15 mentions of uncertainty each meeting.          

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