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Brexit Series: Key takeaways from Brexit betting market

The word ‘Brexit’ has become synonymous with confusion and uncertainties as the path forward remains equally unclear as it was after the referendum vote in 2016 in the United Kingdom.

  • In a time like this, when the fundamental outlook is unclear, technical analysis of chart patterns, sentiment readings from the financial markets, and the betting market odds can provide not just crucial clues but the trading idea as well.

Let’s take a look at the key takeaways from the betting market on Brexit,

  • Second Brexit referendum: The betting market is currently pricing that there will be no second Brexit referendum with a 62 percent probability, and only 28 percent probability that would take place.
  • Brexit date: Betting market is pricing only 50 percent chance of Brexit happening before 2019 and 50 percent probability that it would not take place before 2020.
  • Deal or no-deal: According to market, no deal is not a very likely scenario. The market is pricing 87 percent chance of an agreement between the UK and EU and only 13 percent chance that the UK would leave the EU, without an agreement.
  • Article 50 revoked: The betting odds suggest that 73 percent probability that the UK would not revoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.
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July 2 15:00 UTC Released

DKCurrency Reserves

Actual

449.6 Stale

Forecast

Previous

451.7 Stale

July 2 13:45 UTC Released

USISM NY Biz Conditions

Actual

50 %

Forecast

Previous

48.6 %

January 31 00:00 UTC 767564767564m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

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Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 31 00:00 UTC 767564767564m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 22 19:00 UTC 779384779384m

ARTrade Balance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

-1541 %

January 31 00:00 UTC 767564767564m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 22 19:00 UTC 779384779384m

ARTrade Balance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

-1541 %

January 31 00:00 UTC 767564767564m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 31 00:00 UTC 767564767564m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 31 00:00 UTC 767564767564m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

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