BoE preview: market pushed hikes too far

Economists expect a measured hawkish nudge from BoE's Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR)to be published on 5 November. There has not been enough downside news, for the BoE to justify the decline in market interest rate expectations since August. The BoE was already bearish relative to consensus on Chinese growth in August, while wages and unemployment are beating BoE forecasts.Uncertainty about the global outlook warrants some additional caution. They are unlikely to try and jolt markets.

"In our view. However, they have also been signaling a change in focus towards rate hikes for several quarters, with their above target three-year ahead inflation forecasts. The November QIR should be no different. We look for the BoE to forecast 2.1%/2.2% inflation at the 2/3 year horizon", says BofA Merrill Lynch.