In order to shield Canadian economy, the Bank of Canada is unlikely to tighten policy until at least mid-2017. When it finally does move, it will raise rates somewhat faster than the Fed.
But, at about 100 basis points per year, the pace of hikes will also be relatively slow, at about half the previous cycles.
"Moreover, just as will be the case south of the border, the Canadian economy will be subject to a slower cruising speed as cyclical factors dissipate, with the neutral overnight rate unlikely to rise above 3%", says Economics TD.
In light of this muted profile for the policy rate, investing in three-month T-bills - which we use as a proxy for cash - will yield barely above 1.0% per year between 2016 and 2019.


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