BHP Hits Record Copper Output but Cuts 2026 Forecast, Faces Jansen Project Delays

BHP, the world’s largest listed miner, announced record annual copper production of 2.02 million metric tonnes (Mt) in fiscal 2025—surpassing the 2 Mt mark for the first time and hitting the upper end of its guidance. However, copper output is expected to fall in fiscal 2026 to between 1.8 Mt and 2.0 Mt, driven by anticipated lower ore grades at the flagship Escondida mine in Chile.

The miner also posted record iron ore output of 290 Mt for the year, with fourth-quarter production reaching 77.5 Mt—beating analysts’ consensus of 75.90 Mt. For fiscal 2026, BHP projects iron ore output between 284 Mt and 296 Mt. A strong June quarter helped offset earlier disruptions from two tropical cyclones, with operational improvements at the Pilbara region following the ramp-up of the South Flank mine.

In Canada, BHP’s Jansen Stage 1 potash project has been delayed, with first production now expected in mid-2027, instead of the previously targeted end-2026. Project costs have surged to between $7.0 billion and $7.4 billion—up to 29% higher than initial estimates. BHP attributed the cost increase to inflation, design and scope changes, and lower-than-expected productivity during construction.

The company also revealed it is reviewing strategic options for its Western Australia Nickel operations, which have weighed on its balance sheet. A potential divestment is being considered, alongside other alternatives such as continued suspension, restart, or closure.

Despite challenges, BHP remains operationally strong, with iron ore and copper continuing to drive growth while navigating project delays and shifting market dynamics. Investors will be closely watching how BHP manages its potash expansion and nickel strategy in the coming year.