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Asian share markets rebounded on Friday, tracking a recovery on Wall Street as a turnaround in technology stocks boosted global risk sentiment. Investors, however, remained cautious ahead of a widely anticipated interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan (BOJ), a move that could trigger volatility in currencies and bond markets.
Market sentiment was also supported by a surprise slowdown in U.S. consumer price inflation, which eased to 2.7%. While the softer inflation print briefly lifted confidence, analysts warned the data may be distorted by the recent U.S. government shutdown and should not be taken at face value. As a result, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts shifted only slightly, with markets pricing in a 27% chance of a cut in January and a 58% probability by March.
Attention in Asia remained firmly on Japan, where markets are pricing in around a 90% chance that the BOJ will raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%. Investors currently expect only one additional rate hike to 1.0% in 2026, but any signal of faster policy normalization could strengthen the yen while adding pressure to Japanese government bonds. Japan’s latest data showed core consumer inflation holding steady at 3.0% in November, well above the BOJ’s 2% target.
Japan’s Nikkei index rose 0.6%, while South Korean shares climbed 1.2%, supported by strong earnings from chipmaker Micron Technology. The broader MSCI Asia-Pacific index outside Japan gained 0.2%. U.S. stock futures were flat after overnight gains, and Treasury yields steadied near recent highs.
In global markets, central banks sent mixed signals. The Bank of England cut rates by a narrow margin, while the European Central Bank maintained a more hawkish stance, dampening expectations for further easing. Currency markets were largely stable, with the dollar steady against the yen.
Commodities were mixed, as gold prices hovered below recent highs, oil edged higher on geopolitical risks, and industrial metals showed continued demand.
