Market Roundup
• Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q4) 14, 13 forecast, 13 previous
• Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Diffusion Index (Q4) 28 ,28 forecast, 28 previous
• Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q4) 33 ,33 forecast, 34 previous
• Japan Tankan Small Manufacturers Diffusion Index (Q4) 0 -2, 0 previous
• Japan Tankan Small Manufacturing Index (Q4) 1 ,-2 forecast ,0 previous
• Japan Capacity Utilization (MoM) (Oct) 2.6% 4.4%
• Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) 2.8% 3.0% forecast, 1.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•French CPI (YoY) (Nov) 1.3%forecast, 1.2% previous
•French CPI (MoM) (Nov) 0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
•French HICP (MoM) (Nov) -0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
•French HICP (YoY) (Nov) 1.7% forecast, 1.6% previous
•09:30 UK Inflation Expectations 2.7% previous
•10:00 China M2 Money Stock (YoY) (Nov) 7.6% forecast, 7.5% previous
•10:00 China Outstanding Loan Growth (YoY) (Nov) 7.9% forecast, 8.0% previous
•10:00 China Chinese Total Social Financing (Nov) 2,800.0B forecast ,1,400.0B previous
•10:00 EU Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) 0.0% forecast -2.0% previous
•10:00 EU Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct) -1.9% forecast, -2.8% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower on Friday following the European Central Bank's decision to cut interest rates for the fourth time this year. On Thursday, the ECB reduced rates by 25 basis points and left the possibility of further easing open, as inflation nears its target and the economy remains sluggish. Several ECB officials are scheduled to speak later in the day. While the central bank disappointed doves hoping for a 50 basis point cut, it is expected to implement a quarter-point reduction at each of its policy meetings through the middle of next year. The euro was last down 0.07% against the dollar at $1.0473.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0522(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0583(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0444(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0409(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound weakened against the dollar following data that showed an unexpected contraction in the British economy in October, potentially increasing traders' expectations for quicker rate cuts by the Bank of England next year. Official data showed that UK economic activity contracted by 0.1% in October, while a poll of economists had predicted a 0.1% increase following September's 0.1% decline.. Sterling initially fell as much as 0.3% after the numbers and was last down 0.24% at $1.2642. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2682(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2732 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2630(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2571(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar held near one year low on Friday as dollar found support after US Nov PPI rose more than expected. According to a Labor Department data released Thursday, showed producer prices increased by 0.4% month over month in November, versus an estimated 0.2% increase.Markets are now almost fully pricing a 25 basis point cut at the Fed's meeting on December 17-18, compared to about a 78% possibility a week ago.t GMT 06:27, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.19% to $0.6355, down 0.3% for the week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6385(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6406(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6356(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6326(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Friday as the U.S. dollar strengthened ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting. Despite a better headline, some softening in U.S. producer price inflation on Thursday reinforced market expectations of a 25 basis point drop from the Fed next week. According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders see easing at the next meeting as possibility, but they also place 23% odds on another one coming in January. At GMT 06:38, the pair was trading up 0.41% at 152.96, highest level since November 27th high .Immediate resistance can be seen at 152.85 (Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.09 (23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.71(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 149.61(50%fib).
Equities Recap
Asia shares dropped on Friday as a strong dollar dampened risk sentiment, while longer-dated Treasury yields were on track for their largest weekly increase in a year, driven by fading expectations for U.S. rate cuts in 2025.
Hang Seng was down 1.86% , and South Korea's KOSPI was up by 0.50%, Japan's Nikkei 225 was down -1.02%, China’s A50 fell by 2.47%.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices rose on Friday, heading for their first weekly gain since late November, as new sanctions on Iran and Russia raised supply concerns, though a surplus outlook weighed on the markets..
Brent crude futures edged up 5 cents to $73.46 a barrel by 0716 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 8 cents at $70.1 a barrel
Gold prices edged higher on Friday, set for a weekly gain, as China resumed gold purchases and expectations grew for a Federal Reserve rate cut at its Dec. 17-18 meeting.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $2,688.12 per ounce, as of 0601 GMT. Bullion is headed for a weekly gain and has added more than 2% so far this week.
