- NZ July ANZ/RM consumer confidence index 113.9, three-year low, June 119.9.
- NZ Q2 CPI +0.4% q/q, +0.3% y/y, +0.6% and +0.4% eyed.
- NZ June PMI 55.2, May revised up to 52.0.
- NZ Fonterra GDT price index -10.7%, volumes off, to shed staff.
- Greek parliament approves bailout prior measures package.
- Japan MoF flow data week-ended July 11 - Japanese buy net Y188.2 bln foreign stocks, Y163.1 bln bonds, Y87.9 bln bills; foreign investors sell Y851.2 bln Japan stocks, buy Y974.2 bln bonds, sell trln bills.
- CDC launches Y20 bln 2-tranche samurais vis Daiwa, Nomura.
- US demand Japanese assurance on tariff-free rice import quota.
- SF Fed Williams - USD incredibly important globally, cites US economy, Treasury market, September plausible timing for first rate hike.
- Brazil currency probe may grow, trading ban unlikely.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) IT May trade balance global/EU; last bln, bln surpluses.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Euro zone May trade balance; last E24.9 bln surplus.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Euro zone June inflation final, unchanged m/m, +0.2% y/y eyed; flash +0.2%, +0.2%.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Euro zone June ex/food, energy, unchanged m/m, +0.8% y/y eyed; flash +0.1%, +0.9%.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US weekly initial jobless claims, 285k eyed; last 297k.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US July Philly Fed business sentiment index, 12.0 eyed; last 15.2.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US July NAHB housing market index, 60.0 eyed; last 59.0.
Key Events Ahead
- (0315 ET/0715 GMT) Japan CEFP meets on policies/next year's budget, Amari presser to follow.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Euro Group press conference on Greek bailout.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) Spain E5.5-6.5 bln 0.25/2.15/1.95/4.7% 2018/25/30/41 Bono auctions.
- (0450 ET/0850 GMT) France E7-8 bln zero/zero/3.75% 2018/20/21 OAT auctions.
- (0550 ET/0950 GMT) France E1-1.5 bln 0.1/1.85/0.7% index-linked OAT auctions.
- (0745 ET/1145 GMT) ECB policy announcement, no change in 0.05% refinance, -0.2% deposit rates eyed.
- N/A ECB Pres Draghi press conference.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) Canada May international securities transactions data.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) FOMC Chair Yellen semi-annual Senate Humphrey-Hawkins testimony.
- (1400 ET/1800 GMT) BoE Gov Carney speech in Lincoln, England.
- (1600 ET/2000 GMT) US Treasury May international capital flows data (TIC report).
FX Recap
EUR/USD is supported below 1.1000 levels and currently trading at 1.0931 levels. It has made intraday high at 1.0961 and low at 1.0911 levels. Pair breaks 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $1.0962 as Greek leaders voting in favour of bailout reforms overnight as broad based US dollar strength backed by Yellen's comments remained the underlying theme weighing on EURUSD. A busy European session ahead, with European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting followed by ECB Chief Draghi's press conference expected to be the main highlight. Most interesting will be to see what Draghi speaks on ELA and how to handle bridge financing for Greece. Initial support is seen around at 1.0914 and resistance at 1.1243 levels.
USD/JPY is supported above 123.00 levels and posted a high of 123.95 levels. It has made intraday low at 123.68 and currently trading at 123.83 levels. The Bank of Japan made no changes to its current policy settings on Wednesday, but the bank downgraded its economic growth outlook for fiscal 2015. A low-key affair in Asia as markets continue to digest the latest Greece Parliament 'Yes' vote on the bailout deal and Fed Yellen's hawkish comments in her testimony at the Capitol Hill last New York session. Near term resistance is seen at 124.57 and support is seen at 120.63 levels.
GBP/USD is supported around $1.5600 levels. It made an intraday high at 1.5639 and low at 1.5609 levels. Pair is currently trading at 1.5611 levels. Sterling fell after the data showed UK unemployment unexpectedly rose for the first time since 2013 in the three months to May, while wage growth came in slightly weaker than expected. Today is data thin calendar for the UK, market will eye on ECB rate decision as well as macro economic data from the US. Initial support is seen at 1.5413 and resistance is seen around 1.5734 levels.
NZDUSD is supported around 0.6500 levels and trading at 0.6515 levels and made intraday low at 0.9497 and high at 0.6601 levels. The kiwi hit its lowest in 6 years as downbeat domestic inflation figures add to speculation that the RBNZ will cut rates next week. Moreover, global dairy prices tumbled over 10% at the GDT auction, also causing negative drag on the NZD/USD. The CPI rose 0.4% in the June quarter, according to Statistics New Zealand, coming in slightly lower than the 0.5% rate forecast by markets. Initial support is seen at 0.6465 and resistance at 0.6600 levels.
AUD/USD is supported below 0.7400 levels and trading at 0.7360 levels. It has made intraday high at 0.7388 levels and low at 0.7348 levels. The overnight session put the Aussie under pressure from various sides, but it was the stronger greenback that weighed the most. Moreover, weak NZ CPI data also contributed to the downside. There are no Australian data due for release today while good-looking Chinese data yesterday failed to spark a sustainable rally in AUD. Tonight's US session will remain again in focus with Fed Chair Janet Yellen's round two and more US data. Initial support is seen at 0.7325 and resistance at 0.7647 levels.
