Market Roundup
•Japan Adjusted Current Account (Oct) 2.41T, 2.28T forecast, 1.27T previous
•Japan Bank Lending (YoY) (Nov) 3.0%, 2.6% forecast, 2.6% previous
•Japan Current Account n.s.a. (Oct) 2.457T, 2.318T forecast, 1.717T previous
•Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.3%, 0.2% forecast, 0.5% previous
•Japan GDP Annualized (QoQ) (Q3) 1.2%, 0.9% forecast, 2.9% previous
•Japan GDP Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q3) -0.1%, -0.2% forecast, 1.1% previous
•Australia Private House Approvals (Oct) -5.2%, -5.2% forecast, 4.1% previous
•China CPI (MoM) (Nov) -0.6%, -0.4% forecast, -0.3% previous
• China CPI (YoY) (Nov) 0.2%, 0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous
• China PPI (YoY) (Nov) -2.5%, -2.8% forecast, -2.9% previous
•Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (Oct) 4.2%, 4.2% forecast, 5.8% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•08:45 French Government Budget Balance (Oct) -173.8B previous
•09:30 EU Sentix Investor Confidence (Dec) -12.4 forecast, -12.8 previous
•10:00 Greek Quarterly Unemployment Rate (Q3) 9.8% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro was little changed against the dollar on Monday, ahead of a busy week of central bank meetings expected to see borrowing costs reduced. Key events this week include the European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting on Thursday and China's closed-door Central Economic Work Conference. Political turmoil in France and South Korea was compounded by the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime, adding complexity to the already tense situation in the Middle East. Despite these challenges, the mood remained generally positive after U.S. November payrolls showed a sufficient recovery to ease fears of a slowdown, though not strong enough to prevent a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week. The U.S. consumer price report, due Wednesday, is expected to show the core inflation holding at 3.3% for November, which is unlikely to hinder further easing. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0605(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0637(30SMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0458(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0417(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged higher on Monday as investors awaited crucial inflation data this week, which could influence the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision. Core U.S. inflation figures are due on Wednesday and a result above the +0.3% forecast would challenge the market's confidence in a December rate cut by the Fed. The implied probability is currently at 83% with a further 75 basis points of easing priced in for next year. The UK has a full data schedule including GDP, construction, trade, industrial production, manufacturing, and consumer inflation expectations, which will provide a broad snapshot of the economy. Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden speaks on Monday. The dollar index was up nearly 0.2% at 106.1 on the day, adding to its 0.5% rise on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2866(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2789 (SMA 30).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2629(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2507(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Monday as investors awaited rate decision by Reserve Bank of Australia . The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged in December. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser is scheduled to deliver a speech on Australia and the global economy the day after the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision on interest rates. Meanwhile, Assistant Governors Brad Jones and Sarah Hunter will be speaking on Thursday and Friday, respectively. At GMT 05:28, The Aussie was trading down 0.10% to $0.6381 after having dropped 2% last week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6483(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6491(Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6406(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.63826(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar inched higher against the yen on Monday as investors awaited more clarity on the likelihood of a near-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. On the economic front, Japan's economy grew faster than initially expected in the July-September period, driven by upward revisions in capital investment and exports. This has kept market expectations alive for a potential rate hike by the central bank. Revised data from the Cabinet Office revealed that Japan's GDP grew by an annualized 1.2% in the third quarter, surpassing economists' forecasts and the initial estimate of 0.9%. This data will be closely examined by the Bank of Japan at its upcoming policy meeting on December 18-19, where some analysts predict a possible increase in short-term interest rates from the current 0.25%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.97 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.62 (23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.82(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.50(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian shares struggled on Monday as investors prepared for a busy week of central bank meetings, which are expected to result in lower borrowing costs.
Japan's tech-heavy Nikkei N225 up 0.22% , and South Korea's KOSPI dipped by 2.78%. China’s A50 gained by 0.34%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices gained on Monday, with support from top consumer China's central bank resuming gold purchases after a six-month hiatus, while investors awaited U.S. inflation data this week for cues into the Federal Reserve's next move.
Spot gold gained 0.3% at $2,639.98 per ounce, as of 0541 GMT. U.S. gold futures added 0.1% to $2,661.70.
Oil prices rose on Monday following the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime, which added to the uncertainty in the Middle East. However, the gains were limited by a weakening demand outlook for the upcoming year.
Brent crude futures rose 36 cents, or 0.51%, to $71.48 per barrel by 0723 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 37 cents, or 0.55%, to $67.57 per barrel.
