Market Roundup
• Australia MI Inflation Expectations 4.5%, 4.8% previous
•Australia Employment Change (Oct) 42.2K, 20.0K forecast,12.8K previous
•Australia Full Employment Change (Oct) 55.3K,6.5Kprevious
•Australia Participation Rate (Oct) 67.0%,67.0%previous
• Australia Unemployment Rate (Oct) 4.3%, 4.4%forecast,4.5% previous
•UK Business Investment (QoQ) (Q3): -0.3%, -0.7% forecast, -1.1% previous.
•UK Business Investment (YoY) (Q3): 0.7%, 3.0% previous.
•UK Construction Output (MoM) (Sep): 0.2%, 0.0% forecast, -0.5% previous.
•UK Construction Output (YoY) (Sep): 1.3%, 1.2% forecast, 1.1% previous.
•UK GDP (QoQ) (Q3): 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous.
•UK GDP (YoY) (Q3): 1.3%, 1.3% forecast, 1.4% previous.
•UK GDP (MoM) (Sep): -0.1%, 0.0% forecast, 0.0% previous.
•UK GDP (YoY) (Sep): 1.1%, 1.4% forecast, 1.2% previous.
•UK Index of Services: 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous.
•UK Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep): -2.0%, -0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous.
•UK Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep): -2.5%, -1.2% forecast, -0.5% previous.
•UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Sep): -1.7%, -0.7% forecast, 0.6% previous.
•UK Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Sep): -2.2%, -0.8% forecast, -0.7% previous.
•UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Sep): 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•UK Trade Balance (Sep): -18.88B, -20.80B forecast, -19.53B previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•10:00 EU Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep): 0.7% forecast, -1.2% previous.
•10:00 EU Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep): 2.1% forecast, 1.1% previous.
•10:10 EU Italian 3-Year BTP Auction: 2.36% previous.
•10:10 EU Italian 30-Year BTP Auction: 4.260% previous.
•10:10 EU Italian 7-Year BTP Auction: 3.05% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro was steady against the dollar on Thursday as investors anticipated an end to the U.S. government shutdown. President Donald Trump on Wednesday signed legislation to end the longest shutdown in U.S. history, which began on October 1 and had delayed the release of key economic data, including payroll and inflation reports.Economists said the U.S. Labor Department's statistical agency should prioritise the production of November employment and inflation reports to ensure Federal Reserve officials have up-to-date information at their December policy meeting.The Fed will again lower its key interest rate by 25 basis points next month to underpin a weakening labour market, according to 80% of economists polled, up slightly from a poll taken last month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1609(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1642(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1475(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1462(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling sipped against the dollar on Thursday after data showed UK economic growth disappoints in Q3. Britain's economy barely expanded in the third quarter, held back by September's cyber attack on Jaguar Land Rover, according to data on Thursday that underlined the backdrop of slow growth as finance minister Rachel Reeves readies her budget.The economy grew 0.1% in the third quarter of 2025, the Office for National Statistics said, slowing from growth of 0.3% in the second quarter. The Bank of England, had forecast 0.2% growth in gross domestic product for the July-September period. Thursday's data is unlikely to sway deliberations around Reeves' November 26 Budget, with the economy still growing tepidly despite the government's intention to "kickstart" it .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3198(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3243(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2977(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened on Thursday after robust monthly employment data dimmed hopes of near-term interest rate cuts. Australian employment jumped in October, driven by an increase in full-time hires, pushing the unemployment rate down from a four-year high and reinforcing the view that the current easing cycle might be nearing its end. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed that net employment increased by 42,200 in October, up from 12,700 in September. This significantly exceeded market expectations of a 20,000 gain and was driven by a 55,300 rise in full-time positions. The participation rate remained unchanged at 67%, while total hours worked increased by a solid 0.5%. Most importantly, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.5%, which had been the highest level since November 2021. Markets swiftly reduced expectations for further policy easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia next year, with the probability of a May rate cut plummeting to 25%, down from nearly 70% prior to the release of the data . Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6543(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6594 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6473(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6440(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped on Thursday as yen recovered some ground on expectations of Japanese intervention risks. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama issued a fresh verbal warning about the yen’s weakness on Wednesday as it neared 155 per dollar, highlighting “one-sided and rapid movements” in the foreign exchange market.A weak yen could force the BOJ's hand, leading to a hike next month. Traders see a 24% chance of a quarter-point increase to the key rate in December, rising to 46% odds for a hike by January. Japan's yen has come under renewed pressure as the country's new premier has been pushing the central bank to go slow on further rate rises.The Japanese yen has already fallen below levels that previously triggered Tokyo's intervention and is now approaching 155 per dollar, a level that many Japanese companies consider a critical pain point.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.58(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.90 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.98 (SMA20).
Equities Recap
Asian equities advanced on Thursday, led by a four-day rally in South Korean shares, while regional currencies held firm after U.S. President Donald Trump signed a bill to end the nation’s longest-ever government shutdown.
Hang Seng was up 0.50% ,South Korea’s KOSPI traded up 0.49% ,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.44%
Commodities’ Recap
Gold extended its rally for a fifth consecutive session on Thursday, reaching a more than three-week high, supported by optimism that the U.S. government’s reopening will resume economic data releases and strengthen expectations for additional interest rate cuts.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $4,207.24 per ounce, as of 0637 GMT, its highest since October 21. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were steady at $4,211 per ounce.
Oil prices slipped on Thursday, extending the previous session’s losses, after data showing an increase in U.S. crude inventories heightened concerns that global supply remains ample to meet current fuel demand.
