Market Roundup
• Australia MI Inflation Expectations (Oct) 4.8%, 4.7% previous
• Japan 5-Year JGB Auction 1.233%, 1.119% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 09:00 Greek CPI (YoY) (Sep) 2.9% previous
• 09:00 Greek HICP (YoY) (Sep) 3.1% previous
• 10:00 Irish CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.4% previous
• 10:00 Irish CPI (YoY) (Sep) 2.0% previous
• 10:00 Irish HICP (YoY) (Sep) 1.9% previous
• 10:00 Irish HICP (MoM) (Sep) 0.4% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
•10:00 Eurogroup Meetings
•11:30 ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro slipped against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as political turmoil in France continued to weigh on the currency. The shock resignation of Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu and his government, just hours after unveiling the cabinet, marked the shortest-lived administration in modern French history. France’s fifth prime minister in two years, Lecornu stepped down amid mounting political pressure. President Emmanuel Macron is set to appoint a new prime minister within 48 hours, his office said on Wednesday, noting that most lawmakers oppose a snap parliamentary election amid the nation’s deepest political crisis in decades.The single currency last traded 0.11% lower at $1.1616, it remains more than 0.8% down for the week thus far. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.16662(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1733(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1599(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1565(Lower BB)
GBP/USD: The pound slipped on Thursday amid ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts this year. On Wednesday, Israel and Hamas agreed to the first phase of a ceasefire and hostage deal under U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan for Gaza, potentially paving the way to end the two-year conflict, which the U.N. has described as a genocide.Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials noted that risks to the U.S. labor market were significant enough to justify a rate cut but remained cautious due to persistent inflation, according to minutes from the September 16–17 meeting. Markets now price in 25-basis-point cuts in both October and December, with probabilities of 93% and 78%, respectively, per the CME FedWatch tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3500(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3530(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3344(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3309(Lower BB).
NZD/USD: New Zealand dollar dipped against dollar on Thursday as kiwi dollar remained under pressure in the wake of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) dovish outlook. The Kiwi tumbled sharply on Wednesday after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand slashed the cash rate by a larger-than-expected 50 basis points to 2.6%, signaling the possibility of further easing as it seeks to revive the stalled economy.Yields on New Zealand 10-year bonds fell 12 basis points to 4.145%, their lowest level since September last year and just 3 basis points above U.S. yields.Markets are pricing in an 80% probability of another rate cut to 2.25% in November, with a 50-50 chance of rates falling to 2.0% next year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.5800(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.5856(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.05734 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.5708(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar extended gain on Thursday as yen continued to weaken amid a change of guard in Japan's ruling party. The yen has been whiplashed after hardline conservative Sanae Takaichi was picked as head of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party, putting her on course to become the country's first female prime minister and fuelling bets of a revival in big spending and loose monetary policy.The Japanese currency was last a touch weaker at 153.10. It has fallen more than 3% for the week thus far, set for its worst performance since September 2024. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.34(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.44 (Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 152.15 (38.2%fib).
EquitiesRecap
Japan’s Nikkei surged to a fresh high on Thursday, led by SoftBank Group, which jumped over 11% as investors embraced its vision for AI-powered robots.
South Korea’s KOSI was up 2.70% ,China’sA50 traded up 0.85% ,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 1.80 %
Commodities Recap
Gold paused its record rally on Thursday as investors booked profits, a day after bullion surpassed the $4,000 mark for the first time amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts this year.
Spot gold lost 0.2% to $4,029.86 per ounce, as of 0642 GMT, after hitting a record high of $4,059.05 on Wednesday.
Oil prices were mostly unchanged on Thursday as investors balanced a ceasefire in Gaza, which could ease Middle East geopolitical tensions, against stalled peace talks in Ukraine that may prolong sanctions on Russia and limit its exports.
Brent crude futures rose 2 cents to $66.27 a barrel by 0629 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1 cent to $62.54.
