- BOJ July survey - Japan bank loan demand up on CAPEX, sales.
- Japan to set aside $32 bln for growth measures in next year's budget.
- Japan to set budget deficit estimate @Y6.4 trln in FY '20.
- Japanese companies' investment in China continue to fall in '15, -40%.
- ANZ launches Y80 bln 5-year samurais via Daiwa, MUFJ, Mizuho, Nomura.
- FOMC Chair Yellen - Fed needs to be sure not to tighten too late and be faced with a faster pace of increases.
- Foreign inflows into US Treasuries in May large in more than a year, net overall capital flow +$115.0 bln, April rev +$107.9 bln ($106.6 bln), net foreign holdings of US Treasury bonds/notes +$53.4 bln, April +$6.4 bln.
- Foreign CB US debt holdings -$1.111 bln to $3.353 trln July 15 week, Treasury holdings -$756 mln to $3.009 trln, agencies +$717 mln to $299.344 bln.
- NY Fed - Swaps with foreign CBs $308 mln July 15 week, all with ECB.
- US-based taxable bond funds attract $2.6 bln in latest week.
- Bad news for Canada's currency is good news for many.
- NZ June job adverts -0.6% m/m, still +0.7% y/y.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US June CPI, +0.3% m/m, +0.1% y/y eyed; last +0.4%, unchanged.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US June core, +0.2% m/m, +1.8% y/y eyed; last +0.1%, +1.7%.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US June real weekly earnings; last -0.1% m/m.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US June housing starts, 1.11 mln AR eyed; last 1.04 mln, -11.1% m/m.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US June building permits, 1.15 mln AR eyed; last 1.25 mln, +9.6% m/m.
- (0900 ET/1300 GMT) Belgium July consumer confidence index; last -2.0.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US Jul UOM sentiment index - prelim, 96.1 eyed; last 96.1.
- (1130 ET/1530 GMT) US June Cleveland Fed median CPI; last +2.2% y/y.
Key Events Ahead
- Singapore closed for Hari Raya Puasa, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines too.
- Tokyo markets closed Monday.
- N/A Bundestag vote on Greek bailout.
- N/A UK GBP0.5/1.5/2.0 bln 1/3/6-month treasury bill auctions.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) Fed vice Chair Fischer in US Chamber of Commerce discussion in Washington.
FX Recap
EUR/USD is supported around 1.0900 levels and currently trading at 1.0895 levels. It has made intraday high at 1.0902 and low at 1.0868 levels. German lawmakers from both sides of an aisle are expected to vote on Friday in favour of starting talks on a third bailout for Greece, despite Finance Minister Schaeuble's opposition. ECB left monetary policies unchanged yesterday as widely expected. President Mario Draghi said that asset purchase program continued as planned and results showed that inflation expectations recovered since June. From US, initial jobless claims dropped 15k to 281k in the week ended July 11, slightly lower than expectation of 282k. Continuing claims dropped 112k to 2.22m in the week ended July 4. Initial support is seen around at 1.0842 and resistance at 1.1243 levels.
USD/JPY is supported around 124.00 levels and posted a high of 124.22 levels. It has made intraday low at 123.98 and currently trading at 124.01 levels. The greenback edged lower versus the yen this session on the back of profit-taking after the buck touched fresh six week highs against it major competitors backed by Fed Chair Yellen's hawkish comments and the recent two back-to-back sessions of upbeat US macro data releases. In the day ahead, a set of crucial US economic releases such as CPI and consumer sentiment data will influence further moves in USD/JPY. Near term resistance is seen at 124.57 and support is seen at 120.63 levels.
GBP/USD is supported around $1.5600 levels. It made an intraday high at 1.5637 and low at 1.5601 levels. Pair is currently trading at 1.5630 levels. Pair rose to a session high of 1.5638 in the Asian session and could end the week higher, thereby snapping the three week losing streak. The pair has run into the resistance at 1.5638, which is the 38.2% fib retracement of the rally witnessed in June. It suffered losses on Thursday even though the Bank of England governor Mark Carney indicated that UK interest rates could rise "at the turn of this year". With no major UK data due for release, the pair could witness lacklustre trading ahead of the US CPI release. Initial support is seen at 1.5413 and resistance is seen around 1.5734 levels.
NZDUSD is supported above 0.6500 levels and trading at 0.6536 levels and made intraday low at 0.6502 and high at 0.6541 levels. Following a two-day decline the kiwi steadied above the $0.65 handle, but still remains at its 2009 lows. Due to the lower CPI headlines, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will have no qualms about easing policy much further in the coming months. The next RBNZ meeting is scheduled for July support is seen at 0.6465 and resistance at 0.6600 levels.
AUD/USD is supported around 0.7400 levels and trading at 0.7407 levels. It has made intraday high at 0.7417 levels and low at 0.7400 levels. The overnight session put the Aussie back above $0.74 handle, but it was the stronger greenback that weighed the most. Moreover, weak NZ CPI data also contributed to the downside. There are no Australian data due for release. Tonight's US session will remain again in focus with more US data. Initial support is seen at 0.7325 and resistance at 0.7647 levels.
