Market Roundup
• Australia MI Leading Index (MoM) (Sep) 0.0%, -0.0% previous
• UK Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.1% , 0.3% forecast , 0.4% previous
• UK Core PPI Output (MoM) (Sep) 0.0% , 0.0% previous
• UK Core PPI Output (YoY) (Sep) 1.4% , 1.3% previous
• UK Core RPI (MoM) (Sep) -0.4% , 0.6% previous
• UK Core RPI (YoY) (Sep) 2.0%, 2.8% previous
• UK CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.0% , 0.1% forecast , 0.3% previous
• UK CPI (YoY) (Sep) 1.7% , 1.9% forecast , 2.2% previous
• UK CPI, n.s.a (Sep) 134.20 , 134.30 previous
• UK PPI Input (YoY) (Sep) -2.3% , -2.2% forecast , -1.0% previous
• UK PPI Input (MoM) (Sep) -1.0%, -0.5% forecast , -0.3% previous
• UK PPI Output (YoY) (Sep) -0.7% , -0.6% forecast , 0.3% previous
• UK PPI Output (MoM) (Sep) -0.5% , -0.3% forecast , -0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•Italian CPI (YoY) (Sep) 0.7% forecast , 1.1% previous
•Italian CPI (MoM) (Sep) -0.2% forecast , 0.2% previous
•Italian CPI Ex Tobacco (YoY) (Sep) 0.9% previous
•Italian HICP (YoY) (Sep) 0.8% forecast , 1.2% previous
•Italian HICP (MoM) (Sep) 1.2% forecast ,-0.2% previous
•UK House Price Index (YoY) 2.5% forecast , 2.2% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
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Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Wednesday as investors kneely awaited European Central meeting on Thursday. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday, and is expected to cut rates by 25 bps, with investors' focus on whether President Christine Lagarde will give any hints about policymakers longer term expectations, important for the euro's future path. The euro edged 0.05% lower to $1.0887, and earlier touched $1.0882, matching the low from Tuesday, which was the weakest level since Aug. 8. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0895(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0917(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0880(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0863(July 16th low).
GBP/USD: The pound fell on Wednesday after data showed that British inflation slowed more than expected in September, making it simpler for the Bank of England to reduce interest rates further this year. British inflation fell to 1.7% year on year in September from 2.2% in August, the lowest level since April 2021 and lower than poll's forecast of 1.9%. Headline CPI remained steady month on month, although closely monitored services inflation fell to 4.9% year on year. Expectations that the BoE would cut rates more slowly than the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank supported the pound earlier this year, though the gap has narrowed somewhat. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3054(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3123(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2981(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2928 (Lower BB).
NZD/USD: The New Zealand dipped against dollar on Wednesday as soft New Zealand inflation readings bolstered bets for aggressive monetary easing. New Zealand's consumer price index(CPI) rose 0.6% in the third quarter, below forecasts of a 0.7% increase. Annual inflation also slowed to 2.2% from 3.3% the previous quarter and back within the central bank's target band of 1-3%.A measure of non-tradable inflation, which is largely domestic goods and services, remained high at 4.9%, although it did ease from 5.4% the previous quarter.Markets are still betting on a half-point cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in November after it stepped up policy easing with a reduction of the same magnitude just this month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6116(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6161 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6059 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6000(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against the yen on Wednesday as dollar was supported by expectations the Federal Reserve will proceed with modest interest rate cuts. Recent data indicating a resilient economy coupled with slightly hotter-than-expected inflation in September have led market participants to trim bets for an aggressive U.S. rate reduction.Traders currently lay 92% odds for a 25-basis-point cut when the Fed next decides policy on Nov. 7, with an 8% probability of no change, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. A month ago, traders saw greater than 29% odds of a super-sized 50-basis-point reduction. The dollar added 0.1% to 149.34 yen, not far from Monday's high of 149.98 yen, the strongest since Aug. 1. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.83(Oct 15th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.70(38.2 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 147.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Japan's Nikkei share index ended a four-session winning run, as chip-related equities followed an overnight loss in U.S. counterparts due to demand fears, with Tokyo Electron down more than 9%.
The Nikkei N225 closed 1.83% down at 39,180.3 points, after surpassing the 40,000 milestone and reaching a three-month high the previous day.
Commodities Recap
Gold traded in a tight range on Wednesday as market participants awaited more U.S. economic data to determine the number of rate cuts the Federal Reserve is likely to deliver in the near term.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,667.01 per ounce by 0511 GMT and was $18 shy of a record high hit last month. U.S. gold futures gained 0.2% to $2,683.50.
Oil prices edged slightly on Wednesday amid uncertainty over what would happen next in the Middle East crisis, after demand worries drove the market to its lowest level since early October the previous session.
Brent crude oil futures rose 19 cents, or 0.3%, to $74.44 a barrel by 0630 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 24 cents, or 0.3%, to $70.82 per barrel.
