Market Roundup
•China Oct PBoC Loan Prime Rate 3.60% 3.65% forecast, 3.85% previous
• China PBoC Loan Prime Rate 3.10%, 3.15% forecast, 3.35% previous
• New Zealand Credit Card Spending (YoY) (Sep) -3.2% -3.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 07:00 Swiss Sep M3 Money Supply 1,144.7B previous
• 09:00 Greek Aug Current Account (YoY) 0.246B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased slightly on Monday as dollar gained ahead of U.S. presidential election in two weeks. Election polls that show rising odds of former President Donald Trump winning the Nov. 5 election are boosting the dollar, since his proposed tariff and tax policies are seen as likely to keep U.S. interest rates high and undermine currencies of trading partners..The Republican candidate's tariff, tax and immigration policies are seen as inflationary, and thus negative for bonds and positive for the dollar. On the data front, Euro zone flash consumer confidence and PMIs and the German Ifo business climate survey are the only significant data this week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0847(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0866(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0820(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0800(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: The pound eased on Monday as mounting expectations of Republican candidate Donald Trump winning the U.S. election next month pushed the dollar higher.Election polls show rising odds of former President Trump winning the Nov. 5 election and are boosting the dollar, since his proposed tariff and tax policies are seen as likely to keep U.S. interest rates high and undermine currencies of trading partners. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against major rivals, was at 103.49. It fell 0.3% on Friday as risk appetite picked up broadly across markets after China announced more details of its broad stimulus package. Sterling was also down around $1.3041. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3054(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3123(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2981(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2928 (Lower BB).
NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar edged higher in Monday but gains were limited in absence of major economic data from New Zealand and abroad. There is a real chance the Reserve Bank of New Zealand could cut by 75 basis points at its next meeting in November, with swaps pricing in a 20% probability of such a move.Traders are awaiting a speech from the RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr on Thursday morning to see if there is any guidance about the size of the next cut. At (GMT 07:25) Kiwi dollar was trading at down 0.14% at $0.6063 against the U.S. dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6116(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6161 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6059 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6000(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Monday as rising expectations of Republican candidate Donald Trump winning the U.S. election next month strengthened the dollar.U.S. data schedule is led by S&P Global flash PMIs, existing and new home sales, durable goods, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, weekly jobless claims and University of Michigan sentiment. Several Fed officials will voice their opinions on the outlook for the economy and interest rates. Japan has a low-key week for event risk, with flash PMIs, Tokyo October CPI and services PPI the main releases. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.30 (23.6 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 149.45(Oct 17th low), a break below could take the pair towards 148.67(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
Asia shares dipped in and out of positive territory on Monday, under pressure from weakness in Hong Kong stocks.
The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index jumped 14% to a record high, South Korea's KOSPI was up by 0.01%
Commodities Recap
Gold rose to a fresh high on Monday, extending its blazing rally amid uncertainties surrounding the U.S. election, simmering Middle East tensions and rate cuts by major central banks, while silver scaled a near 12-year peak.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $2,727.95 per ounce, as of 0517 GMT, after hitting an all-time high of $2,732.73 earlier. U.S. gold futures were 0.5% higher at $2,743.00.
Oil prices edged up in Asian trading on Monday, following a more than 7% drop last week on worries about demand in China, the world's top oil importer, and an easing of concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East.
Brent crude futures rose 27 cents, or 0.37%, to $73.33 a barrel by 0625 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 31 cents, or 0.45% to $69.53 a barrel.
