Market Roundup
• Japan Jobs/Applications Ratio (Sep): 1.20, 1.20 forecast, 1.20 previous
• Japan Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Oct): 2.8%, 2.6% forecast, 2.5% previous
• Japan Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Oct): 2.8%, 2.5% previous
• Japan CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy (MoM) (Oct): 0.9%, -0.7% previous
• Japan Unemployment Rate (Sep): 2.6%, 2.5% forecast, 2.6% previous
• Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep): 2.2%, 1.5% forecast, -1.5% previous
• Japan Industrial Production Forecast 1M Ahead (MoM) (Oct): 1.9%, 4.1% previous
• Japan Industrial Production Forecast 2M Ahead (MoM) (Nov): -0.9%, 1.2% previous
• Japan Large Retailers' Sales (MoM) (Sep): 0.3%, 0.8% forecast, -0.9% previous
• Japan Large Scale Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep): 3.0%, 3.0% previous
• Japan Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep): 0.5%, 0.8% forecast, -0.9% previous
• Australia Housing Credit (Sep): 0.6%, 0.6% forecast, 0.6% previous
• Australia PPI (YoY) (Q3): 3.5%, 3.4% previous
• Australia PPI (QoQ) (Q3): 1.0%, 0.8% forecast, 0.7% previous
• Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Sep): 0.6%, 0.6% forecast, 0.6% previous
•China Chinese Composite PMI (Oct): 50.0, 50.6 previous
•China Manufacturing PMI (Oct): 49.0, 49.6 forecast, 49.8 previous
•China Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct): 50.1, 50.1 forecast, 50.0 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 07:00 German Import Price Index (MoM) (Sep): -0.2% forecast, -0.5% previous
• 07:00 German Import Price Index (YoY) (Sep): -1.5% previous
• 07:00 German Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep): 1.8% previous
• 07:00 German Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep): 0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous
• 07:45 French CPI (MoM) (Oct): 0.1%forecast, -1.0% previous
• 07:45 French CPI (YoY) (Oct): 1.1% forecast, 1.2% previous
• 07:45 French EUR French HICP (YoY) (Oct): 1.0% forecast, 1.1% previous
• 07:45 French HICP (MoM) (Oct): 0.1% forecast, -1.1% previous
•10:00 EU Core CPI (YoY) (Oct): 2.3%forecast, 2.4% previous
•10:00 EU Core CPI (MoM) (Oct): 0.1% previous
•10:00 EU CPI (MoM) (Oct): 0.1% previous
•10:00 EU CPI (YoY) (Oct): 2.1% forecast, 2.2% previous
•10:00 EU CPI, n.s.a (Oct): 129.43 previous
•10:00 EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Oct): 2.4% previous
•10:00 EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Oct): 0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Friday as investors weighed mixed cues from this week’s central bank decisions and news of a limited U.S.-China tariff truce. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday its second rate reduction this year bringing the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%. However, market participants trimmed expectations for another cut in December after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a more cautious stance on further easing.Meanwhile, the European Central Bank left its key interest rate unchanged at 2% for a third consecutive meeting, with President Christine Lagarde reiterating that monetary policy remains in a “good place” as economic risks ease.Adding to market sentiment, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Thursday that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping had agreed to reduce certain tariffs in exchange for China’s commitments to curb illicit fentanyl exports, resume purchases of U.S. soybeans, and maintain the flow of rare earth exports. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1662(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1728(Oct 17th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1561(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1523(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound hovered near a 5½-month low on Friday as dovish expectations surrounding the Bank of England (BoE) weighed on sentiment. Sterling has weakened in recent days amid growing bets that the BoE will begin cutting interest rates, although policymakers are still expected to keep rates unchanged at next week’s meeting. Softer economic data and easing inflation have reinforced the case for monetary easing, leading investors to reassess the UK’s rate outlook. Meanwhile, markets are focused on the upcoming late-November budget, where Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to outline tax increases and spending cuts that could further hasten the BoE’s path toward policy loosening. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3250(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3335(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3166(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3144(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dipped on Friday after data showed China’s factory activity contracted again in October, weighing on sentiment toward the AUD. Official figures revealed China’s manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.0 from 49.8 in September, marking a six-month low and the seventh consecutive month of contraction, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Given Australia’s strong trade exposure to China, the weakness in Chinese manufacturing often exerts downward pressure on the AUD. Separately, data showed Australia’s Q3 PPI rose 1.0% q/q and 3.5% y/y, compared with prior readings of +0.7% and +3.4%, respectively. Market consensus indicates the RBA will maintain a cautious stance amid signs of cooling consumer spending and a stabilizing labor market. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6617(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6660(Sep 17th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6579(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6547(38.2%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased slightly on Friday as the Japanese yen strengthened following the release of Tokyo’s consumer price and retail sales data. Tokyo’s core inflation accelerated in October, remaining above the BOJ’s 2% target and heightening speculation that policymakers may consider another rate hike in the coming months. Official data showed Tokyo’s core CPI — which excludes fresh food prices — rose 2.8% year-on-year in October, exceeding forecasts of 2.6% and up from 2.5% in September. Meanwhile, Japan’s retail sales grew 0.5% in September from a year earlier, missing expectations for a 0.7% increase. The figures followed the Bank of Japan’s decision on Thursday to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.5%, with two board members dissenting amid concerns over mounting inflationary pressures.Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.27(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.58 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Asian equities were poised to extend their winning streak to a seventh consecutive month on Friday, supported by strong earnings from Amazon and Apple that lifted Wall Street futures
South Korea’s KOSPI up up 0.59 % ,China’sA50 traded down 1.29 ,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up last up 1.83%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices slipped on Friday as a firmer U.S. dollar weighed on demand, with investors remaining cautious amid uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut outlook. Despite the pullback, bullion was still set for a third consecutive monthly gain.
Spot gold was down 0.5% at $4,004 per ounce, as of 0240 GMT. Bullion has gained 3.9% so far this month.
Oil prices slipped on Friday and were set for a third consecutive monthly decline, as a stronger U.S. dollar and soft Chinese economic data weighed on sentiment, while increased output from major producers offset the effects of Western sanctions on Russian exports.
Brent crude futures slipped 36 cents, or 0.55%, to $64.64 a barrel by 0410 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $60.14 a barrel, down 43 cents, or 0.71%.
