Market Roundup
• New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM) 1.4%, 1.8% previous
•China Caixin Services PMI (Oct) 52.0 ,50.5 forecast ,50.3 previous
•Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Nov) 4.35% ,4.35% forecast, 4.35% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•07:45 EUR French Government Budget Balance (Sep) -171.9B previous
•07:45 EUR French Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) -0.5% forecast, 1.4% previous
•08:00 EUR Spanish Unemployment Change (Oct) 26.5K forecast, 3.2K previous
•09:00 GBP Car Registration (YoY) (Oct) 1.0% previous
•09:30 GBP Composite PMI (Oct) 51.7 forecast, 52.6 previous
•09:30 GBP Services PMI (Oct) 51.8 forecast, 52.4 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•10:00 Eurogroup Meetings
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro was little changed against dollar on Tuesday as investor’s squared position amid uncertainty around the U.S. presidential election. Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump are nearly tied in opinion polls, leaving the outcome of the U.S. presidential race uncertain and potentially unconfirmed for days after voting ends. The market's attention will also be on the Fed's interest rate decision due this Thursday, along with remarks from Chair Jerome Powell and other officials. According to the CME FedWatch tool, opens new tab, markets see a quarter-point cut this week, which would be the second U.S. rate reduction of the year.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0914(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0953(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0871(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0858 (5SMA).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher against dollar on Tuesday as cautious investors braced for the U.S. presidential election and a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) later this week. U.S. presidential election could dictate the outlook for the world economy. Opinion polls suggest Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump are virtually tied in the race to win the White House. The Bank of England meets Thursday and is expected to cut by 25 basis points .The BoE's decision has been complicated by a sharp sell-off in gilts following the Labour government's budget last week, which also dragged the pound lower. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3029(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2953(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 12860(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar steadied against dollar on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates steady as expected and reiterated policy needed to stay tight, reinforcing market wagers of no near-term easing in policy. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) wrapped up its latest policy meeting by keeping rates at 4.35%, marking a year since they were last increased, and reiterated that it was not ruling out a further hike if necessary. Markets had seen scant prospect of a rate cut this week and only a 20% chance of a move at the last meeting of the year on Dec. 10. A quarter-point easing in February is priced at 40%, rising to 80% for April. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.66197(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6665(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6579 (5SMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6559(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against the yen on Tuesday as market participants eye the U.S. presidential election. Election day comes to a close following an intensely acrimonious campaign, marked by assassination attempts on former President Donald Trump and the surprising withdrawal of President Joe Biden in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris. Polls now show the candidates are virtually tied as the nation heads into the final hours of voting. Markets are on edge about how Trump's protectionist trade policies in particular could stoke inflation and hit exports in the world's biggest consumer market with bonds and the dollar expected to move on the outcome of the election. Immediate resistance can be seen at 152.72(5SMA) an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.47(23.6 %fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.48(38.2 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 151.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Japan's Nikkei share average rose on Tuesday, rebounding from a sharp decline on Friday its most recent trading session led by stocks that reported robust outlooks.
The Nikkei N225 rose 1.11% to 38,474.66 by the midday break, after opening 0.58% higher.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices traded in a narrow range on Tuesday ahead of what is expected to be an exceptionally close U.S. presidential election, after rising more than 2% in the previous session as OPEC+ delayed plans to hike production in December.
Brent crude futures ticked down 3 cents, or 0.04%,to $75.05 a barrel by 0600 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $71.43 a barrel, down 4 cents, or 0.06%.
Gold prices held their ground on Tuesday as investors stayed away from taking big positions ahead of the U.S. presidential election and the Federal Reserve policy meeting later this week.
Spot gold was little changed to $2,735.96 per ounce by 0523 GMT. Bullion hit a record high of $2,790.15 last week.U.S. gold futures edged lower by 0.1% to $2,744.70.
