Market Roundup
• Australia MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) 0.3%,0.1% previous
•Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (Oct) 0.3% 2.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•08:45 Italian Manufacturing PMI (Oct): 48.8, previous: 48.3
•08:50 French Manufacturing PMI (Oct): 44.5, previous: 44.6
•08:55 German Manufacturing PMI (Oct): 42.6, previous: 40.6
•09:00 EU Manufacturing PMI (Oct): 45.9, previous: 45.0
•09:30 EU Sentix Investor Confidence (Nov): -12.7, previous: -13.8
•10:00 German Car Registration (YoY) (Oct): previous: -7.0%
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•10:00 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Monday as investors braced for a potential pivot this week for the global economy as the United States chooses a new leader. Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump remain virtually tied in opinion polls and the winner might not be known for days after voting ends.Analysts believe Trump's policies on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs would put upward pressure on inflation, bond yields and the dollar, while Harris was seen as the continuity candidate. The euro extended an early climb to be up 0.6% at $1.0901 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0914(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0953(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0871(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0858 (5SMA).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher against dollar on Monday as investors geared up for the U.S. to elect its next president and the Federal Reserve's interest rate announcement this week. The Bank of England also meets Thursday and is expected to cut by 25 basis points, while the Riksbank is seen easing by 50 basis points and the Norges Bank is expected to stay on hold.The BoE's decision has been complicated by a sharp sell-off in gilts following the Labour government's budget last week, which also dragged the pound lower.Early Monday, sterling regained some of its losses to stand at $1.2994 , some way from last week's trough at $1.2841. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3029(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2953(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 12860(23.6%fib).
NZD/USD: The New Zealand dipped on Monday as the dollar skidded at the start of a crucial week dominated by the U.S. presidential election, the Federal Reserve policy meeting. Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump remain virtually tied in opinion polls , while a 25 basis points Fed rate cut has been fully priced in. This week will be dictated by the U.S. elections, the outcome of which is expected to have major implications for the dollar and U.S. Treasuries. On Thursday, markets will look to the Fed's latest rate decision, where investors expect a 25-basis-point rate cut. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6022(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6053(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.5977 (5SMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.5951(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against the yen on Monday as investors focused on U.S. Federal Reserve officials' comments for further rate cut cues. The Nov. 5 U.S. election has entered its final stretch, with opinion polls showing a neck and neck race between Republican candidate Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. In the betting market too, Trump and Harris are nearly deadlocked. The U.S. Federal Reserve's Nov. 6-7 policy meeting will be on the radar alongside the U.S. elections. The central bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, and market participants will be on the watch out for cues on what comes next. Immediate resistance can be seen at 152.72(5SMA) an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.47(23.6 %fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.48(38.2 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 151.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks rose at the start of a crucial week dominated by the U.S. presidential election, the Federal Reserve policy meeting, and a slew of inflation reports from Asian economies.
China A50 was up by 1.07%, South Korean KOSPI was up by 1.83%, while Hang Seng was up by 0.24%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices extended gains on Monday, rising more than $1 on a decision by OPEC+ to delay by a month plans to increase output, while the market braced for a week that spans a U.S. presidential election and a key meeting in China.
Brent futures rose by $1.39 per barrel, or 1.9%, to stand at $74.49 a barrel by 0722 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by $1.41 a barrel, or 2.0%, to stand at $70.90.
Gold held steady on Monday as investors prepared for a key week for the global economy ahead of the U.S. presidential election and the likelihood of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Spot gold edged up by 0.2% to $2,741.63 per ounce, as of 0523 GMT. Bullion hit a record high of $2,790.15 on Thursday.
U.S. gold futures were steady at $2,750.60.
