Market Roundup
•Australia Exports (MoM) (Oct) 3.6% , -4.7% previous
•Australia Imports (MoM) (Oct) 0.1% ,-2.8% previous
•Australia Trade Balance (Oct) 5.953B ,4.530B forecast, 4.532B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•57 min French Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) 0.3%forecast, -0.9% previous
•08:00 Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct) 0.3% forecast, 0.6% previous
•08:30 Italian IHS S&P Global Construction PMI (MoM) (Nov) 48.2 previous
•08:30 German IHS S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov) 40.2 previous
•08:30 French IHS S&P Global Construction PMI (MoM) (Nov) 37.9 previous
•08:30 EUM2 Money Supply (MoM) (Nov) 43.0 previous
•08:45UR French Government Budget Balance (Oct) -173.8B previous
•09:00 UK Car Registration (YoY) (Nov) -6.0% previous
•10:00 EU Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) -0.4% forecast ,0.5% previous
•10:00 EU Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct) 1.7% forecast, 2.9% previous
•10:30 EU German 10-Year Bund Auction 2.380% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Wednesday after a widely expected collapse of the French government following a no-confidence vote by opposition lawmakers. French lawmakers passed a no-confidence vote against the government on Wednesday, as expected, throwing the country deeper into a crisis that threatens its capacity to legislate and tame a massive budget deficit. nvestors also digested comments from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde in a parliamentary hearing on Wednesday. She said the ECB will continue to lower rates, but did not commit to any pace of easing.The ECB will next meet on Dec. 12, and economists overwhelmingly expect another 25 basis-point (bp) rate cut, the fourth such move this year. The euro Euro was up 0.18% at $1.052775, but hovered near the two-year low of $1.03315 hit at the end of November as traders brace for a long-winded reckoning for France.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0559(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0595(Nov 29th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0462(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0417(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound firmed on Thursday as dollar eased as investors awaited U.S. payrolls report later this week for further clues US monetary policy outlook. Powell said on Wednesday the economy is stronger now than the central bank had expected in September when it began reducing interest rates, and appeared to signal his support for a slower pace of interest-rate cuts ahead. The spotlight will be on Friday's non-farm payrolls report for November, with payrolls likely increasing by 200,000 jobs in the month after rising by only 12,000 in October, the lowest number since December 2020, a Reuters survey showed. Markets are pricing in a 74% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed, up from 67% a week earlier, CME FedWatch tool showed. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2735(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2789 (SMA 30).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2629(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2507(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar held around four-month low on Thursday as investors banked on more aggressive rate cuts by RBA.Market rates pricing altered dramatically on Wednesday as data on Australian economic growth dashed recovery hopes. Market pricing on rates had shifted sharply on Wednesday after data on Australian economic growth badly wrong-footed hopes for a recovery, while showing an easing in wage and price pressures. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets next week and is widely expected to hold rates at 4.35%, as it has done for the past year. Yet swaps now imply a 50% chance it will cut in February, up from 27% before the data. At GMT 05:48, The Aussie was trading up 0.10% to $0.6436, having shed 0.9% on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6483(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6491(Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6406(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.63826(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against the yen on Thursday as traders ponder whether the Bank of Japan will hike interest rates later this month.Expectations had been growing that the BOJ will hike rates at its Dec. 18-19 meeting, buoyed by comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda. But media reports published on Wednesday suggested the BOJ may skip a rate hike this month, muddling those wagers. Bank of Japan board member Toyoaki Nakamura said on Thursday the central bank must scrutinise various economic indicators, including those on wages and business sentiment, in its deliberations on whether to raise interest rates this month.The remark by Nakamura, who is considered as dovish on monetary policy, likely keeps alive the chance of a rate hike at the BOJ's next meeting in December. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.97 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.62 (23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.82(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.50(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian markets were stable on Thursday after a brief martial law scare earlier in the week that shook investor confidence.
Japan's tech-heavy Nikkei N225 gained 0.38% , and DJ Shanghai was up by 0.14%. Hang Seng dipped by 1.10%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices remained subdued on Thursday as investors stayed cautious ahead of U.S. payrolls data, which could offer further insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction.
Spot gold edged 0.1% lower at $2,646.71 per ounce by 0514 GMT. U.S. gold futures eased 0.2% to $2,670.90.
Oil prices held mostly steady on Thursday ahead of an OPEC+ meeting later in the day, with investors awaiting the group's next move on supply cuts while also keeping a close eye on ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Brent crude futures rose 6 cents, or 0.08%, to $72.37 a barrel by 0400 GMT, while U.S. crude futures were at $68.61 a barrel, up 7 cents, or 0.10%.
