Market Roundup
- South Korea Says February Industrial Output S/Adj +3.3% Vs Jan (Reuters Poll -0.2%).
- South Korea Says Feb Industrial Output +2.4% Vs Yr Earlier (Reuters Poll 0.0%).
- South Korea Says Feb Service Sector Output S/Adj +0.3% Vs January.
- BOJ Gov Kuroda - Will Continue QQE with Negative Rates as Long as Needed to Meet Price Target.
- BOJ Gov Kuroda - Govt has not Declared Escape from Deflation because can't say No Risk of Return to Falling Prices.
- PBOC Sets Yuan Mid-Point at 6.4612 / Dlr Vs Last Close 6.4702.
- China Central bank Injects 100bln Yuan through 7 Day Reverse Repos – Traders.
- Australia February Private-Sector Credit +0.6% M/M, S/Adj – C/Bank.
- Australia February Housing Credit +0.5% M/M, S/Adj – C/Bank.
- Australia New Home Sales -5.3% in Feb – HIA.
- New Zealand Business Confidence 3.2% in March Vs 7.1% in previous Survey - Anz Bank.
- NZ Business Own Activity Outlook 29.4% in March Vs 25.5% in Previous Survey.
- Moody's-Australian Mortgage Delinquencies to Rise in 2016.
- Moody's- Australia's GDP Growth will be towards Upper End of 1.5% to 2.5% Forecast Range for 2016, but this will be Below Long-Term Average of 3.5%.
- UK Consumer Confidence Remains at 0 in March (Reuters Poll -1) – GFK.
- Concerns about Brexit and EZ Appear to be Hitting UK Consumer Confidence – GFK.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0355 ET/0755 GMT) Germany Unemployment rate, previous 6.2%.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Norway Retail Sales Ex. Auto. Previous 0.9%, expected 0.2%.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Norway CB Currency Purchase -900M.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK Current Account, previous -17.5B, Expected -21.4B.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK GDP, previous 0.5%, expected 0.5%.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK GDP Business investment, previous -2.1%, expected 2.0%.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK Mortgage Approvals, previous 74.58K, expected 73.5K.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK Mortgage Lending, previous 3.73B, expected 3.60B.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK M4 Money Supply, previous 0.0%, expected 0.1%.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK GB BOE Consumer Credit, previous 1.564B, expected 1.40B.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) EZ Inflation Ex Food & Energy Flash, previous 0.8, expected 0.9.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Italy Consumer Price, expected -0.3%.
Key Events Ahead
- No key events scheduled for the day.
FX Recap
USD: The dollar index last stood at 94.931, having come within a whisker of a five-month trough of 94.578 set two weeks ago.
EUR/USD: The euro was back within striking distance of its 2016 peak of $1.1377, it last stood at $1.1321, looking set to post quarterly gains of around 4 percent. Pair refrains to sustain above key resistance at $1.1342 marks and trading around $1.1325 mark. Intraday bias remains neutral till the time pair holds key resistance level at $1.1342. A daily close above key resistance at 1.1342 will drag the parity up towards $1.1376 marks. On the down side, key support level is seen at $1.1159/ $1.1057 marks.
USD/JPY: The yen stood at 112.43 against the US dollar after coming close to breaking below 112.00. On the quarter, it is down 6.6 percent, which, if sustained, would be its largest fall since 2009. Japanese Yen breaks key support at 112.60 and remains well supported around 112.24 levels. A daily close below key support level at 112.60 will drag the parity down towards at 110.66/ 108.75/107.51 marks thereafter. On the top side, key resistance levels are seen at 114.87/115.96 levels.
GBP/USD: Sterling stepped from its nine-day high against the buck during US market hours, slightly missing the strong momentum which drove cable approximately three big figures from the two-week low at $1.4055 reached March 24. Pair hovers around key support at $1.4357 marks. Alternatively, a sustained break below key support level will drag the parity down at $1.4057 marks. A daily close above $1.4357 will take the parity up towards key resistances at $1.4504/$1.4602.
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar sat at $0.7658, having popped above 77 cents on Wednesday for the first time since June. It has leapt 7.1 percent so far this month and if sustained, it would be the largest such increase since late 2011. Australian dollar remains supported around $0.7650. Intraday bias remains bearish till the time pair holds key resistance at $0.7672 levels. A sustained close above it will drag the parity up towards $0.7680/$0.7725 levels. On the downside, a sustained break below $0.7433 support levels will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.7365 low. Australia’s new home sales fell 5.3% month-on-month in February vs 0.6% m/m previous release.
NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar rose as high as $0.6965 overnight, a level unseen since June, before retracing to around $0.6900 in morning trade. Pair touched $0.6965 mark yesterday and currently trading around $0.6886 mark. A daily close above $0.6965 will drag the parity to test $0.7157 level. Short term bias remains bullish till the time pair holds key support at $0.6750. Key support was found at $0.6750, with resistance at $0.7002 levels. Today New Zealand’s ANZ Business confidence survey showed that a net 3.2% of firms were upbeat about general economic conditions in March, down from 7.1% a month earlier.
Equities Recap
Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index rose 0.07% to 16,890.42 points, while the broader Topix index gained 0.45% to trade at 1,362.38 points.
Chinese markets opened with modest gains; with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was trading 0.20% lower to 20,761.78 points and the Shanghai Composite index climbing 0.37% to 3,011.61 points within the first few minutes of trade.
South Korea's Kospi index slid 0.61% to 1,989.86 points.
Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index was trading 1.42% higher to 5,081.30 points on Thursday.
New Zealand's S&P/NZX 50 index was trading 0.33% higher at 6,736.37 points on Thursday afternoon in Wellington.
Commodities Recap
Oil futures fell in Asian trade on Thursday, with U.S. crude hitting the lowest level in more than two weeks, amid renewed worries of global oversupply after U.S. crude inventories rose to a record high. That increase came despite seasonal refinery utilisation hitting an 11-year high, while a rise in the dollar index .DXY put further pressure on oil prices. Brent crude futures fell 45 cents to $38.81 a barrel as of 0518 GMT. It ended up 12 cents in the previous session after touching a session peak of $40.61.
Gold ticked up on Thursday, helped by a softer dollar and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's caution over U.S. interest rate hikes, and was also set to record its best quarter in nearly 30 years. Bullion rallied sharply since this year as worries over global economic growth and a slowdown in China shook up stock markets, triggering safe-haven demand for the yellow metal. It has gained 15.6 percent in the first three months of the year, its strongest such performance since the third quarter of 1986. Spot gold had risen 0.2 percent to $1,226.24 an ounce by 0322 GMT. After a near 11-percent rise in February, gold prices are down about 1 percent in March.
Treasuries Recap
New Zealand government bonds gained, sending yields half a basis point lower at the short end of the curve.
Australian government bond futures rose, with the three-year bond contract up 2 ticks at 98.120. The 10-year contract added 1 tick to 97.5150, while the 20-year contract edged up 1.5 tick to 96.9450.
