Market Roundup
- ECB demands Greek bank collateral for emergency loans slashed by as much as 50 percent, haircuts could be upped more if debt deal impasse continues.
- BoJ seeking to lower 1% inflation forecast for FY '15, 0.5-1% likely, GDP likely upper 1% to 2% through FY '17, inflation at target FY '16, '17.
- Japan March trade surplus Y229.3 bln, exports +8.5% y/y, imports -14.5%, Y50 bln, +8.5%, -12.8% consensus, exports to US +21.3%, China +3.9%, Asia +6.7%,first surplus since mid-'12.
- Japan March crude oil import volume -15.3% y/y, LNG +1.2%, coal +1.9%.
- Australia Q1 CPI +0.2% q/q, +1.3% y/y, trimmed mean +0.6%, +2.3%, weighted median +0.6%, +2.4%, +0.2/+1.3%, +0.6/+2.2% and +0.5/+2.3% consensus.
- Australia March job vacancies +1.9% y/y, ads still 50% below March '08 high.
- Australia March WPC/MI leading index 98.0, 6-mo dev -0.14, Feb 98.28, +0.5.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0400 EDT/0800 GMT) Italy Industrial sales mm, previous -1.6%.
- (0400 EDT/0800 GMT) Italy Industrial Orders mm, previous -3.6%.
- (0500 EDT/0900 GMT) Italy Retail Sales mm, previous 0.1%.
- (0500 EDT/0900 GMT) Switzerland ZEW Survey - Expectations, previous -37.9.
- (0700 EDT/1100 GMT) US MBA Mortgage Application, previous -2.3%.
- (0900 EDT/1300 GMT) US Housing Price Index mm, consensus 0.7%, previous 0.3%.
- (1000 EDT/1400 GMT) US Existing Home Sales mm, consensus 5.05m, previous 4.88m.
- (1000 EDT/1400 GMT) Eurozone Consumer Confidence, consensus -2.75, previous -3.70.
Key Events Ahead
- N/A Iceland central bank financial stability report.
- N/A EFSF 10-year syndication, Sweden, Norway government bond auctions.
- (0430 EDT/0830 GMT) BoE MPC April 9 meeting minutes, 9-0 vote for no changes seen.
- (1300 EDT/1700GMT) Buba Dombret speech in New York.
FX Recap
USD/JPY partially trimmed previous gains in the Asian session and turned red. It currently trades at 119.52 levels, down from 119.77 levels. Immediate support is located at 119.44 levels and a break below could extend its losses to 119.20 levels. On the upside, a break above 120.15 levels could push the pair further to 120.80 levels.
AUD/USD is rallying post the Australian CPI data and broke above the 0.7750 levels. It currently trades at 0.7764 levels, having toughed the day's high at 0.7771 levels so far. The pair has resistance at 0.78 levels and a break above could push the pair the February and March highs at 0.7912/38 levels. On the other hand, a break below 0.7685 levels would make for 0.7640 levels and then 0.7600 levels.
NZD/USD is continuing its upward move from yesterday and is trading at 0.7676 levels at present. It has posted a high of 0.7687 levels and low of 0.7656 levels so far in the day. Markets now focus on US existing home sales data for further cues for the pair. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at 0.7688 (Today's High) levels and a break above could see the pair testing 0.7700 levels. On the flipside, support is seen at 0.7632 (April 21 Low) levels and then at 0.7600 levels.
GBP/USD is trading flat ahead of BOE monetary policy meeting minutes between 1.4910- 1.4945, last at 1.4941. Near term support falls at 1.4913 and 1.4855 (Low April 21). Daily close above 1.4855 is required to get further direction. Resistance falls at 1.4983 and 1.5053 (High April 17). Break above 1.4972 (50 DMA) gives verification towards next target.
EUR/USD is trading in a tight 1.0715-1.0740 range. The pair is being undermined by the rising concerns surrounding Greece debt crisis. On the topside, immediate resistance is located at 1.0750 levels, and then at 1.0800 levels. On the other hand, support is likely to be found at 1.0623 (April 16 Low) below which it could be dragged to 1.0570 (April 15 Low) levels.
