Market Roundup
- Philippine c/bank: latest inflation data confirms current policy appropriate
- Philippines: April inflation at 2.2% yr/yr (Reuter's poll: 2.4%)
- Philippines: April core inflation at 2.5% yr/yr (Reuter's poll: 2.6%)
- Philippines: April inflation at 0.2% m/m (Reuter's poll: 0.2%)
- Taiwan April CPI -0.80% y/y (Reuter's poll median -0.6%)
- Taiwan April WPI -9.15% yr/yr
- Taiwan April core CPI +0.68% y/y
- Taiwan April seasonally adjusted CPI -0.13% mth/mth
- PBOC sets Yuan mid-point at 6.1180 / dlr vs last close 6.2090
- Indonesia's GDP grew 4.71% Y/Y in Q1 (Reuters Poll +4.95%)
- Indonesia's GDP grew -0.18% Q/Q in Q1 (Reuters Poll +0.04%)
- RBA cuts by 25bps as expected but comments viewed as neutral
- RBA Says Sees Improved Trends in Household Demand over Past 6 Months
- RBA Says Further Fall in AUD Seems Likely and Necessary
- RBA Says Sees Stronger Growth in Employment
- RBA Says Inflation Seen Consistent With Target over Next 1-2 Years
- RBA Says Sees Weakness in Business Capex as Key Risk
- RBA Says Sees Economy with a Degree of Spare Capacity for Some Time Yet
- RBA Says Easing to Reinforce Recent Encouraging Trends in Household Demand
- RBA Says Lending to Housing Market been Steady over Recent Months
- RBA Says House Prices Strong in Sydney, Varied Elsewhere
- AUS March goods/svcs deficit aud1.32bln, s/adj (poll: deficit aud1bln)
- Australia March goods/services exports -2% m/m, s/adj
- Australia March goods/services imports -2% m/m, s/adj
- AUS AIG performance of services index falls 0.5 pts to 49.7 in April
- Ahead of Britain's May 7 election, poll shows labour & conservatives tied on 33%
Economic Data Ahead
- (0245 EDT/0645 GMT) France Budget Balance (Previous -23.45 b)
- (0330 EDT/0730 GMT) Sweden Industrial Production ( Previous -0.1, Consensus 0.2)
- (0430 EDT/0830 GMT) UK Markit/CIPS Cons PMI ( Previous 57.8, Consensus 57.5)
- (0500 EDT/0900 GMT) Euro zone Producer Prices ( Previous 0.5, Consensus 0.3)
- (0530 EDT/ 0930 GMT) Euro zone EC Economic Forecasts
Key Events Ahead
- (0500 EDT/0900 GMT) AUSTRIA (6Y B 3.500% 15/09/21 . . EUR1.1BN)
- (0500 EDT/0900 GMT) AUSTRIA (8Y B 1.750% 20/10/23 . . TOTAL)
FX Recap
EUR/USD is trading in a choppy range since yesterday. Pair is currently trading at 1.1134 levels and made 1.1131 low and high at 1.1149 levels. In European session Spain Unemployment change, Europe Economic forecast as well as PPI data will be main focus today. Near term support is seen at 1.1122, 1.1102 levels. On the top side, resistance is seen at 1.1224 (Yesterday's high) and 1.1246.
USD/JPY is sustaining above the 120.00 levels, currently trading around 120.12 levels. Very less movement in the USDJPY as Japan banks remain close today again. Traders now await US Trade balance and ISM non manufacturing data due later in the day for further direction on the US dollar moves which may drive the USD/JPY pair. Initial support is seen at 119.75 and resistance is seen at 120.69 levels.
GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.5116 and sustaining below 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and touched the low of 1.5113. UK will release construction PMI data which will drive the pair further. UK returns from long weekend- 20pts lower than Friday's NY close. Momentum studies & 5 dma crest, 10 & 20 dma's head north, conflicting signals suggests a period of consolidation. On the downside minor support is around 1.5100 and weakness can be seen below that level. Resistance is seen at 1.5175 levels.
USD/CHF trades flat around 0.9358 levels. Pair made intraday high at 0.9359 and low at 0.9331. Today is data free session for CHF, now market awaits USD trade balance as well as ISM non manufacturing data for the further direction. On the top side, resistance is seen at 0.9387 and support around 1.9315 levels.
AUD/USD has fallen sharply after RBA cut 25 BPS to 2.00%.This should ensure some downside follow-through as some shorts covered earlier. Key Fibonacci support is seen at 0.7740 which is the 61.8% of 0.7534/0.8077 move. After the rate decision pair immediately made new low at 0.7787 and high at 0.7905 levels. The downside movement was short-term only. Pair is currently trading at 0.7887 levels. Initial support is seen at 0.7740 and resistance is seen at 0.7920 levels.
