- BOJ leaves policy as it is, vote 8-1, keeps upbeat view of economy, maintains asset purchases, policy meetings to be cut to 8 from current 14 next year, economic outlook report to be issued 4 times annually instead of current 2, minutes of meeting to be released earlier, to include more details of Policy Board members thinking, Kiuchi dissents again, for return to pre-October policy, also QQE/zero rates for as long as needed with flexible CPI target.
- 1/3 of Japan firms see profit plans hurt with USD/JPY 120-125, 53% hurt is JPY weakens more against USD to 130, most firms reluctant to unwind cross share-holdings.
- Credit Agricole launches Y139.9 bln 4-tranche samurai via CA, Daiwa et al.
- Foreign CB US debt holdings +$4.965 bln to $3.365 trln June 17 week, Treasury holdings -$4.841 bln to $3.024 trln, agencies +$9.368 bln to $297.202 bln.
- NY Fed - Swaps with foreign CBs $114 mln June 17 week, BOJ $1 mln, ECB $113 mln.
- Lipper - US-based taxable bond funds post biggest outflow this year.
- ECB not sure if Greeks will be able to open on Monday.
- Greece hopes Monday EZ summit productive.
- New Zealand FinMin English - Low 0.60s long-run average for NZD/USD, RBNZ Gov Wheeler needs to get inflation back to target, governor "out of zone", plenty of room to lower rates.
- New Zealand June ANZ/RM consumer confidence index 119.9, May 123.9, reading still well.
- New Zealand May job ads +0.1% m/m, +2.6% y/y.
- Mystery walk-out in Hong Kong vote brings heavy defeat for Beijing.
- (0200 ET/0600 GMT) Germany May producer prices, +0.2% m/m, -1.1% y/y eyed; last +0.1%, -1.5%.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Euro Zone April current account balance; last EUR24.9 bln surplus nsa, E18.6 bln sa.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Euro Zone April net investment flow; last E42.1 bln outflow.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK May PSNB, bln eyed; last bln.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK May ex-banks, GBP10.8 bln eyed; last bln.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK May PSNCR; last - bln.
- (0900 ET/1300 GMT) BE June consumer confidence index; last -3.0.
Key Events Ahead
- (0230 ET/0630 GMT) BOJ Gov Kuroda press conference.
- (0236 ET/0636 GMT) BOJ DepGov Nakaso speech at trust association annual meeting in Tokyo.
- N/A ECB Governing Council emergency call on extending Greek ELA funding.
- N/A EuroGroup/EcoFin meeting in Luxembourg.
- N/A CEPR/Norges Bank symposium in Oslo (till tomorrow).
- N/A UK DMO GBP2/1.5/2 bln 1/3/6-month treasury bill auctions.
- (0530 ET/0930 GMT) Norges Bank Gov Olsen speech at Oslo conference.
- (0630 ET/1030 GMT) BoS DepGov Restoy speech at Madrid university.
- (1140 ET/1540 GMT) SF Fed Williams speech at NBER East Asia seminar in San Francisco.
- (1245 ET/1645 GMT) Cleveland Fed Mester speech at Cleveland/Philly Fed Summit in Pittsburgh.
FX Recap
EUR/USD is supported below 1.1300 levels and currently trading at 1.1363 levels. It has made intraday high at 1.1399 and low at 1.1356 levels. Pair keeps gains in the Asia as the US dollar stalled its upward moves following a slew of upbeat economic releases released in the US last session. Greece remains to the spotlight in European trading hours as Euro zone finance ministers continue to meet in Luxembourg. This time around, they will be joined by their counterparts of EU countries outside of the single currency bloc. However, the pair remains supported below 1.1400 mainly on the back of Greece stand-off once again at Thursday's Euro group meeting where the talks were concluded with no deal reached between Greece and its international creditors. Today German PPI as well as Euro zone Current account data will be main focus for the day. Initial support is seen around 1.1297 and resistance is seen around 1.1437 levels.
USD/JPY is supported around 123.00 levels and posted a high of 123.20 levels. It has made intraday low at 122.81 and currently trading at 123.18 levels. On Friday the BOJ decided not to make any changes to its current policy settings, keeping interest rates at around zero, and continuing to expand the monetary base at a rate of ¥80 trillion per year. According to the bank's forecasts, inflation is set to reach the 2% target in the first half of fiscal 2016. Near term resistance is seen at 124.57 and support is seen at 122.10 levels.
GBP/USD is supported below $1.5900 levels. It made an intraday high at 1.5895 and low at 1.5872 levels. Pair is currently trading at 1.5875 levels. Sterling hit a seven-month high against a broadly weaker dollar on Thursday after better-than-expected UK retail sales data, which followed strong wage growth numbers and hawkish comments from a Bank of England policymaker. In the absence of major economic data from the UK, market may trade range bound. Initial support is seen at 1.5744 and resistance is seen around 1.5939 levels.
USD/CHF is supported above 0.9200 levels and trading at 0.9212 levels and made intraday low at 0.9201 and high at 0.9220 levels. Market is trading flat after SNB maintained its policy of negative interest rates and penalties for holding Swiss francs in cash. Today is data free session for Switzerland. Near term support is seen at 0.9113 levels and resistance is seen at 0.9289 levels.
AUD/USD is supported below 0.7800 levels and trading at 0.7767 levels. It has made intraday high at 0.7813 levels and low at 0.7761 levels. A broad based sell-off in the USD pushed the commodities higher. Iron ore slides around +6% during this week. Today no major data is expecting from Australia. Initial support is seen at 0.7568 and resistance at 0.7838 levels.
