Market Roundup
- US Building Permits: Number Feb 1.092m, (consensus 1.065m, previous 1.060m)
- US Build Permits: Change MM Feb 3%, (previous 0%)
- US Housing Starts Number MM Feb 0.897m, (consensus 1.049m, previous 1.081m)
- US House Starts MM: Change Feb -17%, (previous 0%)
- US Redbook MM w/e 1%, (previous 1%)
- US Redbook YY w/e 2.7%, (previous 2.6%)
- CA Manufacturing Sales MM Jan -1.7%, (consensus -1.2%, previous 1.6%)
- ECB's Praet we have a cyclical not structural recovery in EZ
- Eurogroup's Dijsselbloem repeated on Tuesday that Greece is running out of cash & must work on economic reforms if it hopes to receive further assistance
- BOE's Brazier Greece will not in any realistic scenario repay its current level of debt
- IMF's Lagarde unconventional monetary policies are temporary in nature
- Italy confirms intends to join China-led Asia infrastructure bank w/Germany, France
- US does not have specific plans to join China-led Asian investment bank (WH spokeman)
- Moody's diverse economy sources of federal revenue protect Canada's 'AAA' from low oil prices
- Fonterra's GDT price index falls 8.8%, w/an avg selling price of 3,136/tonne
- Turkish CB leaves rates unchanged, to maintain tight policy until significant improvements in inflation outlook
- Brazil's Barbosa says bringing inflation to center of target & fiscal equilibrium is key to resume econ growth, expects economy to start recovering in Q3 of this year
- Investors pull USD 6.4b from bond ETF's on first 10 trading days of March
- (1745 ET/ 2145 GMT) NewZealand Current Account - Qtrly Q4 (consensus -3.150b, previous -5.010b)
- (1745 ET/ 2145 GMT) NewZealand Current Account- Annual Q4 (consensus -7.88b, previous -6.09b)
- (1745 ET/ 2145 GMT) NewZealand C/A Balance To GDP Q4 (consensus -3.4%, previous -2.60%)
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Exports YY Feb (consensus 0.3%, previous 17.00%)
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Imports YY Feb (consensus 3.1%, previous -9.00%)
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Trade Balance Total Yen Feb (consensus -1050.7b, previous -1177.5b)
- (2130 ET/ 0130 GMT) China China House Prices YY Feb (previous -0.05)
- No Significant Events
FX Recap
USD/JPY: The pair is in consolidation phase requiring fresh impetus to take it to the current threshold at 122.00. USD/JPY is grinding to a halt around the 121.20 mark. At the time of writing the pair is trading at 121.363 with a high of 121.52 and a low of 121.10. The market is weighted on the bullish side in the pair as we price in the divergence between the banks. Option expiries for Wednesday 18th March: 120.50 (300M), 121.00 (279M), 121.50 (580M), 121.70 (621M)
USD/CAD: CAD vulnerable amid steady decline in oil, weighing on BoC outlook. Upside limited in recent multi-year tops in the low-1.2800s, ahead of the critical FOMC meeting due tomorrow. Currently the pair trades flat at 1.2770, meandering within a 50-pip range. Canadian manufacturing shipments contracted 1.7% from Dec to Jan, disappointing market expectations, weighing on CAD. Resistance seen at 1.2825 (2015 high ), 1.2845 (high 2009) and then 1.2900. On the downside supports lie at 1.2735 (low ), 1.2681 (low ) and then 1.2613 (low ).
AUD/NZD: AUD flat as RBA minutes highlight data dependency with dovish bias. The AUD/NZD pair jumped today boosted by a decline of the New Zealand dollar across the board after a sharp decline in dairy prices. Price fell as low as 1.0325, the lowest since March 5. Then rebounded toward 1.0400 and after breaking above jumped to 1.0429, hitting the highest since last Friday. The pair currently trades at 1.0420/25, up 0.55% for the day.
USD/CHF: CHF is rising in line with EUR with key domestic risk being SNB Thursday. USD/CHF pared earlier loses from 1.0008, the lowest level since last Thursday as greenback gained momentum ahead of tomorrow's FOMC. USD/CHF managed to hold above 1.000 while earlier approached 1.0100 but lost strength around 1.0090. The pair is hovering around 1.0050, falling modestly on the day. Bullish bias seen in the medium term.
GBP/USD: GBP/USD continues to trade with a heavy tone as we approach this weeks FOMC decision. Cable price has broken through a key support level of 1.4970. Pair is below the pivot and is contained by the descending resistance line form 1.7190 and July 2014 highs. Currently cable is trading at 1.4749 with a high of 1.4846 and a low of 1.4722. Support levels at 1.4700, 1.4605, 1.4526 and 1.4470/50. Key resistance remains the 1.5550 recent high. Option expiries for Wednesday 18th March: 1.4815-20 (320M), 1.4900 (520M)
