Market Roundup
- US Markit Mfg PMI Flash Feb 54.3, f/c 53.6, 53.9-prev
- CA Retail Sales MM Dec -2%, f/c -0.4%, 0.4%-prev
- CA Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM Dec -2.3%, f/c -0.8%, 0.7%-prev
- MX GDP YY Q4 2.6%, f/c 2.6%, 2.2%-prev
- MX GDP QQ Q4 0.7%, f/c 0.9%, 0.5%-prev
- MX IGAE Econ Activity YY Dec 3.15%, f/c 3.01%, 2.04%-prev
- MX IGAE Econ Activity MM Dec -0.34%, 0.49%-prev
- Eurogroup's Dijsselbloem says euro zone extended Greek bailout by 4 months, includes requirement for Greece to submit list of reform measures on Monday, Greece expressed commitment to no roll-back of measures
- Eurogroup's Dijsselbloem Euro zone funds for Greek bank recap must not be used for govt needs
- ECB prepares for a Greece exit from euro zone ( Spiegel)
- Greek PM Tsipras confident on extension, calls for "historic" political decision
- Germany's Merkel wants "significant improvements" to Greek bailout proposal
- France's Hollande Greece must meet commitments, EU must take election in account
- Dutch junior FinMin Wiebes bailout extension request not clear enough
- EU's Juncker rules out Greek exit from euro (WirtschaftsWoche)
- Portugal PM Coelho against loans for Greece if no clear obligations, no bitterness against Greece & its new govt
- Fed's Bullard US will benefit from low oil low yields in 2015, Okun's law should be demoted to Okun's suggestion (DJ)
- Fed's Plosser Fed will have to do something about 'patient' rate guidance at March meeting, poor Fed communication has made risk of abrupt mkt reaction greater than needed
- Canada's Oliver says core inflation nowhere near deflationary
- Danish CB to defend peg to "last drop of blood", current tools should be enough to defend crown's peg to euro (government adviser)
- Oil prices fall slightly after Baker-Hughes data show US oil rig count fell by 37 this wk
- Turkish econ minister Zeybekci says central bank should take 'brave decisions' to lift growth
- Moody's Italy set to benefit from reforms, though debt/GDP ratio to decline only gradually
- Moody's won't rush decision on Brazil rating prefers to wait & see if high risk events will materialize
Economic Data Ahead
- No Significant Data
Key Events Ahead
- (1850 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Bank of Japan will release the minutes of January policy meeting
FX Recap
USD/JPY: USD/JPY pair bottomed at the beginning of the US session at 118.28. Later erased all losses and rose back above 119.00 on reports of Greek deal. USD/JPY is currently trading at 119.15. Option expiries Mon Feb 23rd: 117.65-75 (1.4BLN), 118.00 (481M), 119.50 (608M), 120.00 (1.25BLN)
USD/CAD: C$ weakened to session lows on Friday after data showed retail sales dropped by a more-than-expected 2.0% in Dec. Pair saw a tumultuous week but the range wasn't huge, 1.2360/1.2565. The prospects of an early rate hike by the Fed will support further upside in the pair.
EUR/USD: EUR/USD advances further on Greece deal. The common currency is now consolidating its break above 1.1400. Initial resistance at 1.1450 (high ) followed by 1.1486 (high Feb.6) and finally 1.1499 (high Feb.5). Breakdown of 1.1270 (low Feb.9) would open the door to 1.1262 (low ) and then 1.1200 (psychological level). Option expiries Mon Feb 23rd: 1.1150 (400M), 1.1250 (1.4BLN), 1.1300 (654M), 1.1320 ((1BLN), 1.1335 (629M), 1.1350 (488M), 1.1450 (636M)
GBP/USD: Fundamentally, the pound is strong on its own right. UK economic situation seems to have stabilized, and latest macro figures confirm so. A drop below near term uptrend and the 20 day MA at 1.5250 is needed to alleviate the immediate upside. Above 1.5490, key resistance is the 1.5855 November 2013 low
EUR/CHF: Swiss franc is among the best performer on Friday but trimmed gains versus the euro during the last hours on reports that Greek and Eurogroup have reached an agreement. The pair has been able to climb almost a hundred pips after falling sharply a from 1-month high at 1.0810 to 1.0665, the lowest price since Wed.
