Market Roundup
- US NY Fed Manufacturing Mar 6.9, (consensus 8, previous 7.7)
- US Industrial Output MM Feb 0.1%, (consensus 0.2%, previous -0.3%)
- US Capacity Utilization MM Feb 78.9%, (consensus 79.5%, previous 79.1%)
- US Mfg Output MM Feb -0.2%, (consensus 0.1%, previous -0.3%)
- US NAHB Housing Market Indx Mar 53, (consensus 56, previous 55.00)
- CA Securities CAD MM Jan -10.78b, (previous 13.89b)
- CA Securities Foreign CAD MM Jan +5.73b, (previous -13.54b)
- BR IBC-BR Econ Activity Jan -0.11%, (consensus 0.01%, previous -0.57%)
- Russia's CB's Tulin says key rate at 14% still too high
- ECB's Draghi sees steadily recovering econ situation in euro area, optimistic about the outlook but must press ahead with reforms, EZ econ's too intertwined to entertain reversing integration process
- ECB says spent EUR 9.751b on bonds in first week of QE pgm
- Germany's Schaeuble says doesn't know what to do w/Greece now, need to further stabilize the euro, new Greek govt has destroyed all the trust that has been rebuilt
- German spokesman Merkel & finance ministry still have shared goal of keeping Greece in EZ
- EU's Moscovici if Greece leaves the EZ question would be who's next, says Greek debt has to be repaid cannot be wiped out
- Italy Treasury plans to hike '15 GDP growth f/c to 0.7 or 0.8% from 0.6%, leave deficit to GDP at 2.6%
- BCB weekly poll Brazil '15 inflation at 7.93% v 7.77%, '15 GDP -0.78 v -0.66%
- Brazil's Levy says return to normality of US economy means dollar is more expensive for everyone, says a real quick fiscal adjustment will help ease business uncertainty
- Germany's Merkel says prepared to impose more sanctions against Russia if necessary
- OPEC leaves 2015 world oil demand growth f/c unchanged at 1.17m BPD
- (1600 ET/ 2000 GMT) US Net L-T Flows, Ex-swaps Jan (previous 35.4b)
- (1600 ET/ 2000 GMT) US Foreign Buying, T-Bonds Jan (previous -22.2b)
- (1600 ET/ 2000 GMT) US Overall Net Capital Flows Jan previous -174.8b)
- (1600 ET/ 2000 GMT) US Net L-T Flows ,Incl. Swaps Jan (previous 45.9b)
- JPY Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement
- (2030 ET/ 0030 GMT) Australia RBA March Meeting Minutes
- (2030 ET/ 0030 GMT) Japan Bank of Japan Policy Statement/Kuroda Press Conference
FX Recap
USD/JPY: USD/JPY is capped at 121.40 on a minor recovery attempt and trades range bound between key levels. The pair is currently trading at 121.37 with a high of 121.46 and a low of 121.08. Beyond here there is a great deal of congestion. Major resistance is at 121.80, while 120 will mark first key support ahead of the Feb lows of 118.11. Option expiries for Tuesday 17th March: 120.00 (1.8BLN), 121.00 (930M), 122.00 (612M)
USD/CAD: USD/CAD drops to lows near 1.2750 as the greenback is rapidly depreciating vs. its Canadian counterpart on Mon. Disappointing releases in the US economy saw the Empire State index, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization and the NAHB index all coming in below expectations, adding further selling pressure to the pair. Currently the pair is trading at 1.2750, down 0.26 pct on the day. Support lie at 1.2700 ahead of 1.2617 (low ) and then 1.2598. Resistances are at 1.2825, 1.2845 and then 1.2900. Option expiries for Tuesday 17th March: 1.2700 (500M), 1.2780 (244M), 1.2800 (220M). 1.2825 digital expiry.
EUR/USD: After a brief knee-jerk to fresh 12-year lows around 1.0460 overnight, EUR/USD has been pushing higher. EUR/USD upside capped at 1.0620. The European currency is now gyrating around 1.0600 the figure. The pair is up 0.90% at 1.0591 with the next hurdle at 1.0635 (high ) ahead of 1.0683 (high ) and then 1.0718 (high ). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.0457 (12-year low ) would expose 1.0335 (2003 low Jan.2) and then 1.0300 (psychological level). Option expiries for Tuesday 17th March: 1.0700 (428M)
GBP/USD: GBP/USD has made a minor recovery of the yearly lows made at the end of last week. The pair is moving back onto the 1.48 handle, currently trading at 1.4837 with a high of 1.4854 and a low of 1.4736. This week however, we have the FOMC to look forward to and Yellen's outlook will be heard. For the mean time, technically, closes below the aforementioned 2013 lows here introduces scope to 1.4291/29, the 78.6% retracement of the move from 2009 and the 2010 low. Option expiries for Tuesday 17th March: 1.4900 (175M)
EUR/GBP: EUR/GBP trims daily gains, consolidates after recovery. EUR/GBP slipped on a broadly stong pound. The pair earlier peaked at 0.7165 but then during the American session pared gains to trade at 0.7130, less than 20 pips above today's opening price. Inflation and employment data from EZ and Bank of England minutes Wednesday will be in focus.
