Market Roundup
- Fed's Yellen: needs to be sure not to tighten too late & be faced w/faster pace on increases.
- ECB's Draghi: (policy unch) QE proceeding smoothly, intended to run until Sept '16 & in any case until inflation path is consistent w/target.
- ECB's Draghi: ECB raised ELA to Greek bks (EUR 900mln), total exposure to Greece is EUR 130 billion, doesn't want to underplay difficulty that ECB had making decisions on Greece.
- ECB's Draghi: expects Greece to repay ECB on Jul 20, also due to repay IMF; says there was no decision on haircuts of Greek collateral.
- US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 281k, f/c 285k, 296k-previous.
- US Continued Jobless Claims* w/e 2.215m, f/c 2.295m, 2.327m-previous.
- US Philly Fed Business Index Jul 5.7, f/c 12, 15.2-previous.
- Eurogroup's Dijsselbloem: says deal Greece is good, credible deal, will put Greek economy back on track.
- BOE's Carney: decision as to when to start UK hikes will likely come into sharper relief near YE '15.
- BOE's Carney: firming of inflation will become more apparent as the effects of past commodity price falls drop out of the annual inflation rate around YE.
- Brazil House speaker weighs possibility of Rousseff impeachment.
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
- No Significant Data
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
- No Significant Events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD
EUR/USD is supported around 1.0819 levels and currently trading at 1.0879 levels. It has made session high at 1.0925 and low at 1.0852 levels. The pair started to fall after US weekly jobless claims data came at, 281k against forecast of 285k. It fell from 1.0905 levels, to hit daily lows at 1.0854 levels. The pair retreated from 1.0854 to 1.0912 after talks of bridge loan to Greece in the ECB press conference. In the early hour's Greek parliament approved austerity measures demanded by its creditors to open talks for multibillion bailout package. Later, the European finance ministers approved 7 billion euros in bridging loan, giving Greece some breathing space. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0915. To the downside, major support level is located at 1.0819. Overall trend of this pair is bearish in the medium and in the long term.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD is supported around 1.5558 levels and currently trading at 1.5607 levels. It has made session high at 1.5622 and low at 1.5558 levels. The cable fell from 1.5622 in early US session towards 1.5558 levels, after US jobless claims data was released in the earlier US market which came at better than expected figures. During the course of ECB meeting, the cable retreated from 1.5558 levels to reach 1.5607 levels after comments were made about EU providing bridging loan to Greece. The cable has refused to give its bullish momentum as traders bet the Bank of England would raise interest rates early next year, while euro zone monetary policy remains ultra-loose. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0915. To the downside, major support level is located at 1.0819. Overall the trend of the pair remains bullish in the short term.
USD/CHF
USD/CHF is supported around 0.9529 levels and currently trading at 0.9575 levels. It has made session high at 0.9583 and low at 0.9526 levels. The pair has broken all the key resistance levels and is trading above 0.9500 psychological levels, which is a sign of bulls control in the pair. The pair jumped from 0.9548 to reach daily high at 0.9583, after US jobless figures was released in the early US session. The pair lost its bullish momentum during the course of ECB meeting, as Euro rebounded, the Swiss franc fell sharply towards 0.9538 daily lows. Earlier in the Euro session Swiss retail sales was released, which printed slightly less than expected figures at -1.8% against the forecast of 1.9%. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9595. To the downside, major support level is located at 0.9520. The trend of the pair remains bullish in long-term.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY is supported around 123.50 levels and currently trading at 124.10 levels. It has made session high at 124.17 and low at 123.18 levels. The pair broke resistance level at 123.85 to hit 124.17 daily and 3-week high pair bullish momentum is supported by the dollar index which rallied to a seven-week high on Thursday. Yesterday Fed Chair Janet Yellen signaled that the first rise in U.S. rates in nearly a decade was likely this year. Jobless claims printed positive figures today by giving impetus to market expectations of a U.S. interest rate hike later this year. The pair is expected to reach 125.00 psychological levels in the short term. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 124.40. To the downside, major support level is located at 123.50.
