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America's Roundup: Dollar rises on economic data, trade hopes, Wall Street ends higher, Gold drops, Oil recoups some losses, but trade and supply worries dominate-January 18th, 2019

Market Roundup

•    UK in deadlock over Brexit 'Plan B' as May and Corbyn double down

•    UK says second Brexit vote would take over a year to organise - source

•    U.S. economy 'very strong' despite market worries -Fed's Quarles

•    US w/e 12 Jan Initial Jobless Claims, 213k, 220k forecast, 216k previous 

•    US w/e 12 Jan Jobless Claims 4-Wk Avg, 220.75k, 221.75k previous 

•    US w/e 5 Jan Continued Jobless Claims, 1.737 mln, 1.735 mln forecast, 1.722 mln previous

•    US Jan Phily Fed Business Index, 17, 10.0 f'cast, 9.4 prev, 9.1 revised

•    Shutdown is starting to hurt Trump's financial deregulation agenda

•    Ex-Trump lawyer: rigging polls 'was at the direction of' Trump

•    Before start of new oil pact, OPEC made progress averting glut

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)

•    17 Jan 21:30 New Zealand Dec Manufacturing PMI, 53.5 previous

•    17 Jan 23:30 Japan Dec CPI, Core Nationwide YY, 0.8% forecast, 0.9% previous

•    17 Jan 23:30 Japan Dec CPI, Overall Nationwide, 0.8% previous

•    18 Jan 04:30 Japan Nov Industrial Output Rev, -1.1% previous

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

•    14:05 New York Fed's John Williams speaks in New Jersey

•    14:15 Federal Reserve issues industrial production for December Washington D.C.

•    16:00 Philadelphia Fed's Patrick Harker speaks in Philadelphia

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD: The euro huddled at a two-week low against the dollar on Thursday, as weak euro zone data pulled the single currency below a key market level. Data this week showed the German economy grew by 1.5 percent in 2018, the weakest rate of expansion in five years, while euro zone inflation data earlier showed price pressures receding further from the central bank's target. The euro held at $1.1398, broadly flat against the dollar. It briefly hit a low of $1.1369 in the European session, its lowest since Jan. 4. The single currency has fallen 1.7 percent over the last week as weak data has weighed. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1421 (21 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1448 (9 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1357 (Ichmoku Cloud Base), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1300 (Psychological level).

GBP/USD: The British pound gained against dollar on Thursday, as growing expectations that Britain can avoid a no-deal Brexit supported British pound. Although a multitude of options remain on the table, including fresh elections or even a second referendum vote, market analysts believe the risks of a hard no-deal Brexit have receded considerably despite the headlines. The pound was last trading 0.80 percent up at $1.2980. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2998 (Higher Bollinger Bands), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3068 (23.6% retracement level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2943 (38.2% retracement level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2842 (50% retracement level).

USD/CAD:The Canadian dollar weakened to its lowest in more than one week against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, as oil prices fell and domestic jobs data showed a pullback last month in hiring. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, fell after U.S. crude production neared an unprecedented 12 million barrels per day (bpd) and concern grew over weakening demand. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.17 percent lower at 1.3274 to the greenback. The currency touched its weakest level since Jan. 8 at 1.3319. Still, it has advanced 2.6 percent since the start of 2019 after falling 7.8 percent last year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3313 (50% retracement level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3393 (61.8% retracement level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3241(Lower Bollinger Band), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3173 (Jan 11th low).

USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against Japanese yen on Thursday, as stronger than expected economic data boosted greenback. The number of Americans filing applications for jobless benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to sustained labor market strength that should continue to underpin the economy. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 213,000 for the week ended Jan. 12, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Data for the prior week was unrevised. The dollar was 0.12 higher versus the Japanese yen at 109.20. Strong resistance can be seen at 109.69 (21 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 110.00 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 108.57 (9 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 108.00 (Psychological level). 

Equities Recap

A profit warning from Societe Generale and U.S. frictions over Chinese tech giant Huawei weighed on European shares on Thursday, although the worries gradually faded and a rising Wall Street helped indexes pare losses or close a shade higher.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.4 percent, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day up by 0.06 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.2, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.4 percent.

U.S. stocks advanced on Thursday as hopes of an expedient resolution to the trade war between the United States and China boosted industrial shares and lifted investor sentiment.

Dow Jones closed up by 0.67 percent, S&P 500 ended up 0.75 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.70 percent.

Treasuries Recap 

U.S. Treasury yields rose on Thursday with the benchmark 10-year yield reaching near three-week highs as better-than-expected economic data and hopes for progress in U.S.-China trade talks diminished safe-haven demand for government debt.

The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes hit a near three-week peak of 2.761 percent. It was last 2.749 percent, 2.0 basis points higher than Wednesday's close.

Commodities Recap

Gold declined on Friday as better-than-expected U.S. weekly jobs data boosted dollar across the board.

Gold edged down 0.12 percent to $1,291.48 per ounce, with a psychological resistance of $1,300 holding a solid roof over its head. U.S. gold futures settled 0.1 percent lower at $1,292.30.

Oil prices steadied on Thursday, boosted by a rebound in U.S. equities and news that OPEC sharply curtailed production in December, after earlier losses on fears about surging U.S. crude output and weakening global demand.

Brent crude oil futures slipped 14 cents to settle at $61.18 a barrel after trading as low as $60.04 intraday. U.S. crude futures fell 24 cents to settle at $52.07 a barrel, up from a low of $50.98.
 

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July 2 15:00 UTC Released

DKCurrency Reserves

Actual

449.6 Stale

Forecast

Previous

451.7 Stale

July 2 13:45 UTC Released

USISM NY Biz Conditions

Actual

50 %

Forecast

Previous

48.6 %

January 31 00:00 UTC 811973811973m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

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2016 bln ARS

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Bln AR bln ARS

January 31 00:00 UTC 811973811973m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

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2016 bln ARS

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Bln AR bln ARS

January 22 19:00 UTC 823793823793m

ARTrade Balance

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Forecast

Previous

-1541 %

January 31 00:00 UTC 811973811973m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

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Forecast

2016 bln ARS

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Bln AR bln ARS

January 22 19:00 UTC 823793823793m

ARTrade Balance

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Forecast

Previous

-1541 %

January 31 00:00 UTC 811973811973m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 31 00:00 UTC 811973811973m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 31 00:00 UTC 811973811973m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

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