Market Roundup
• French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.116%, 2.146% previous
• French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.043%, 2.079% previous
• French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.060%, 2.117% previous
• ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 47.9, 48.2 previous
• ISM Manufacturing Employment (Dec) 44.9, 44.0 previous
• ISM Manufacturing Prices (Dec) 58.5, 58.5 previous
• ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Dec) 47.7, 47.4 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 23:50 Japan Monetary Base (YoY) (Dec) -8.0% forecast,-8.7% previous
• 23:50 Japan Foreign Reserves (USD) (Dec) 1,359.4B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro recovered from early declined on Monday as traders turned their focus to a raft of key U.S. economic data this week for clues on the monetary policy outlook.Markets are largely shrugging off events in Venezuela, after a U.S. raid led to the capture of President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores.The closely watched U.S. monthly employment report, due on Friday, will be key in shaping expectations for the outlook for monetary policy - an arguably weightier factor for the dollar.U.S. manufacturing activity contracted more than expected in December, extending its slump to 10 straight months. The Institute for Supply Management said on Monday that new orders fell again and input costs kept grinding higher as the sector continues to bear the imprint of Trump's import tariffs.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1731(SMA20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1770(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1662(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1620(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling firmed on Monday as optimism that the Bank of England will adopt a measured approach to rate cuts in 2026 supported sterling .The Bank of England, which cut rates by a quarter point last month, is expected to deliver at least one more rate cut this year, with a strong possibility of a second by year-end, according to money markets.British consumer borrowing rose by the most in two years in November, Bank of England data showed on Monday, suggesting household demand remained solid ahead of finance minister Rachel Reeves' budget.Consumer borrowing grew by a net 2.08 billion pounds ($2.79 billion) during the month,the most since November 2023 and more than any forecast in a poll of economists. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3564(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3602(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3440 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3324(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as investors weighed the potential of Venezuelan crude displacing some of the supply to the United States from Canada's energy sector. Canada, like Venezuela, produces a heavy type of crude, much of which it sends to U.S. refineries for processing.The Bank of Canada has signaled a potential end to its interest rate cutting campaign and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has committed to invest billions of dollars on infrastructure as well as measures to raise productivity and competitiveness.U.S. crude oil futures CLc1 settled 1.7% higher at $58.32 a barrel as traders assessed the possible impact on crude flows from Venezuela. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3776 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3880 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3649(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3623(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar initially strengthened against the yen on Monday but later eased as investors assessed the implications of the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. On Saturday, the operation marked Washington’s most contentious intervention in Latin America since the Panama invasion 37 years ago. Vice President Delcy Rodriguez assumed the role of interim leader, stating that Maduro remains president.Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday that the central bank will continue raising rates if economic and price trends align with its forecasts, a stance he has reiterated in recent months, including after December’s expected hike to a three-decade high.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.80(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.91 (SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 155.61 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Europe’s equity benchmark surpassed the 600 level for the first time on Monday, as U.S. strikes in Venezuela raised geopolitical risks and pushed investors toward defence stocks.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.54 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.34 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.20 percent.
Wall Street closed higher on Monday, with strong gains in financials boosting the Dow Jones to a record high, while energy stocks rose following the U.S. military capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
Dow Jones closed up by 1.23 % percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.64 % percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.69% percent
Commodities Recap
Gold climbed to a one-week high on Monday as U.S. strikes in Venezuela boosted its safe-haven appeal.
Spot gold rose 2.7% to $4,444.52 an ounce by 1:38 p.m. ET (1838 GMT), after earlier hitting its highest level since December 29. Gold hit an all-time-high of $4,549.71 on December 26.
U.S. gold futures for February delivery settled 2.8% higher at $4,451.5 an ounce.
Oil rose $1 a barrel on Monday as traders weighed the potential impact on crude supplies from Venezuela, the world’s largest oil reserve, after the U.S. captured President Nicolas Maduro.
Brent crude futures settled up $1.01 or 1.66%, at $61.76 a barrel . U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up $1 or 1.74%, to $58.32.
