Market Roundup
• U.S. retail sales, labor market data paint upbeat economic picture
• US 13 Apr, w/e Initial Jobless Claims, 192k, 200k forecast, 196k previous, 197k revised
• US 6 Apr, w/e Continued Jobless Claims, 1.653 mln, 1.720 mln forecast, 1.713 mln previous, 1.716 mln revised
• US Mar Retail Sales MM, 1.6%, 0.9% forecast, -0.2% previous
• US Apr Markit Comp Flash PMI, 52.8, 54.6 previous
• US Feb Business Inventories MM, 0.3%, 0.4% forecast, 0.8% previous, 0.9% revised
• Fed's Kaplan says he is getting more confident about economy -WSJ
• Euro zone business activity barely grew in April, PMI shows
• CA Feb Retail Sales MM, 0.8%, 0.4% forecast, -0.3% previous, -0.4% revised
• CA Feb Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM, 0.6%, 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous, -0.6% revised
• U.S. wins WTO ruling against China grain import quotas
• U.S. lawmakers to get long-awaited analysis of new NAFTA deal
• USMCA would modestly boost U.S. economy, cut vehicle production -analysis
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
• 18 Apr 11:30 Japan Mar CPI, Core Nationwide YY, 0.7% forecast, 0.7% previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• No major economic events scheduled
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro declined against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, as dollar was boosted after data pointed to a sturdy U.S. economy, while the euro was dented by weak manufacturing activity in Europe.U.S. retail sales increased by the most in 1-1/2 years in March as households boosted purchases of motor vehicles and a range of other goods, the latest indication that economic growth picked up in the first quarter after a false start.The euro was up 0.18 percent at $1.1306, erasing an earlier loss tied partly to weak regional growth data. An index that tracks the dollar versus a basket of six major currencies was down 0.45 at 96.867 after hitting a 16-month high of 97.693 on Monday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1279 (5 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1342 (100 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1222 (38.2% retracement level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1200 (Psychological level).
GBP/USD: Sterling fell on Thursday as the dollar's rally gathered momentum, with strong British retail sales data doing little to shake the currency out of a slumber following a six-month extension to Brexit. Wild swings in the pound subsided last week when European Union leaders granted Britain the Brexit delay to Oct. 31. Retail sales volumes in Britain surged by the most in nearly two-and-a-half years in annual terms, leaping by 6.7 percent. The Bank of England has signalled it will lift interest rates to stop inflationary pressures from building, but it is highly unlikely to act until Brexit is resolved.At 2036 GMT sterling was down 0.3 percent against the dollar at $1.3003 after earlier dipping to $1.2993, a weekly low. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3053 (11 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3088 (21 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2950 (100 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2900 (Psychological level).
USD/USD: The Canadian dollar fell against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, as data showing a rise in Canadian retail sales was overshadowed by strong U.S. retail sales numbers that pointed to a relatively stronger U.S. economy. Canadian retail sales grew by 0.8% in February from January to C$50.62 billion ($37.85 billion), largely as a result of higher sales at general merchandise stores, as well as motor vehicle and parts dealers, Statistics Canada said on Thursday. The Canadian dollar was last trading at 0.4% lower at 1.3385 to the greenback. The currency, which touched its strongest intraday level since March 21 on Wednesday at 1.3270, traded in a range of 1.3336 to 1.3399.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3400 (Psychological Level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3476 (61.8% retracement level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3325 (38.2% retracement level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3279 (April 17th low).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against Japanese yen on Thursday, after U.S. retail sales increased by the most in 1-1/2 years in March, indicating economic growth picked up in the first quarter after a false start. U.S. retail sales increased by the most in 1-1/2 years in March as households boosted purchases of motor vehicles and a range of other goods, the latest indication that economic growth picked up in the first quarter after a false start. The Commerce Department said on Thursday retail sales surged 1.6 percent last month. That was the biggest increase since September 2017 and followed an unrevised 0.2 percent drop in February. The dollar was 0.08 higher versus the Japanese yen at 111.98. Strong resistance can be seen at 112.11 (38.2% retracement level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 112.84 (23.6% retracement level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 111.65 (9 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 111.16 (21 DMA).
Equities Recap
European shares ended higher on Thursday as short covering kicked in ahead of a long Easter weekend and strong quarterly results including those from Unilever and Nestle tempered data showing euro zone businesses unexpectedly slowed this month.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.1 percent, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day up by 0.21 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.5 percent, France’s CAC finished the day upby 0.25 percent.
Industrials led the S&P 500 and the Dow moderately higher on Thursday after robust U.S. economic data and some healthy corporate earnings reports..
Dow Jones closed up by 0.42 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.26 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.02 percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields fell on Thursday, undermined by weak manufacturing surveys around the world that boosted concerns about a global slowdown.
U.S. 10-year note yields fell to 2.563%, from Wednesday's level of 2.592%.Yields on U.S. 30-year bonds were also lower at 2.961%, down from 2.992% on Wednesday. U.S. 2-year yields slipped to 2.384%, down from 2.402% late on Wednesday.
Commodities Recap
Gold held steady near a four-month low on Thursday as gains in dollar driven by data showing robust U.S. retail sales offset support for the metal from weak manufacturing data out of Europe, which kindled some concerns over global growth.
Spot gold was mostly unchanged at $1,274.16 per ounce as of 2:02 p.m. EDT (1802 GMT), having fallen to its lowest since Dec. 27 at $1,270.63 earlier in the session.
Oil futures edged up on Thursday as a drop in crude exports from OPEC's de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, and a draw in U.S. drilling rigs and oil inventories supported prices.
Brent crude futures settled at $71.97 a barrel, up 35 cents from their last close and near Wednesday's five-month high of $72.27.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled at $64.00 a barrel, up 24.00 cents. U.S. futures gained just under 0.2 percent for the week, its seventh weekly gain in a row.
