Market Roundup
•US unemployment rate rises to 3.9%, wage gains moderate
•Gold up for eighth straight session
•Canada Feb Part Time Employment Change -29.9K,48.9K previous
•Canada Feb Full Employment Change 70.6K,-11.6K previous
•US Feb Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.1%,0.2% forecast,0.6% previous
•US Feb Private Nonfarm Payrolls 223K, 160K forecast,317K previous
•US Feb Nonfarm Payrolls 275K,198K forecast,353K previous
•US Feb Manufacturing Payrolls -4K,10K forecast,23K previous
• Canada Feb Avg hourly wages Permanent employee 4.9%, 5.3% previous
•Canada Capacity Utilization Rate (Q4) 78.7%, 80.2% forecast,79.7% previous
•US Feb Government Payrolls 52.0K ,36.0K previous
• Canada Feb Unemployment Rate 5.8% ,5.8% forecast,5.7% previous
•Canada Feb Participation Rate 65.3% ,65.3% previous
•US Feb Average Weekly Hours 34.3 ,34.3 forecast,34.1 previous
•US Feb Unemployment Rate 3.9%, 3.7% forecast,3.7% previous
•US Feb Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 4.3% ,4.4% forecast,4.5% previous
•US Feb Participation Rate 62.5%, 62.5% previous
•US Feb U6 Unemployment Rate 7.3% ,7.2% previous
•Canada Feb Employment Change 40.7K, 21.1K forecast,37.3K previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 504 ,506 previous
• U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 622, 629 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•01:30 China Feb CPI (MoM) 0.7% forecast,0.3% previous
•01:30 China Feb CPI (YoY) 0.3% forecast,-0.8% previous
•01:30 China Feb PPI (YoY) -2.5% forecast,-2.5% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro eased slightly against the dollar on Friday after mixed data kept an anticipated June interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve on the table. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 275,000 jobs last month, the labor department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its closely watched employment report on Friday. Data for January was revised down to show 229,000 jobs created instead of 353,000 as previously reported. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in February after holding at 3.7% for three straight months, the data showed. The euro was 0.06% lower against the dollar at $1.09425. The common currency hit an eight-week high earlier in the session and was up nearly 1% for the week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0981(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0924(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0905(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened on Friday against a weakening dollar after signs that the European Central Bank (ECB) and the U.S. Federal Reserve might be closer to cutting interest rates than the Bank of England (BoE). Sterling's firmness this week was less a product of the UK fiscal outlook and more related to pressure on the dollar and euro after Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded more confident about cutting interest rates in coming months. Next week brings a raft of UK data, including gross domestic product and wage inflation - a key focus for the BoE. The pound rose 0.18% to $1.2826, after hitting its highest since August against a weakening dollar. It was set for its sharpest weekly jump against the greenback since November, up 1.4% this week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2863(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2890 (Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2802 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2750(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Friday but held on to much of this week's gains as a bigger-than-expected domestic jobs increase supported the view that the Bank of Canada is not in a rush to cut interest rates. The Canadian central bank on Wednesday said it was too early to consider easing rates as it kept its benchmark rate on hold at a 22-year high of 5%. Money markets see a roughly 85% chance the BoC waits until June to ease, little changed from before the jobs report.Canada's economy added 40,700 jobs in February, double the expected increase, but wage growth slowed for a second consecutive month and the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.8%.The loonie was trading 0.2% lower at 1.3480 per U.S. dollar, or 74.18 U.S. cents, after earlier touching its strongest level since Feb. 9 at 1.3421. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3482 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3554(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3424 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3366(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined on Friday as yen was aided by reports the Bank of Japan is warming to the idea of raising interest rates and considering a new quantitative monetary policy framework.Jiji news agency reported the BoJ is considering a framework that will show the outlook for upcoming government bond buying amounts. Separately, Reuters reported a growing number of BoJ policymakers could support ending negative interest rates this month on expectations that this year's annual wage negotiations will yield strong results. The yen rose 0.68% against the dollar to 147.05 yen, its highest level since early February. It is up 2% on the week, its strongest weekly percentage rise since mid July. Investors now await the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, due later on Friday, with expectations for job growth to slow in February. Strong resistance can be seen at 148.09(Daily high ),an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.58 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 146.94(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 145.74(50%fib).
Equities Recap
Europe's main stock indices were flat on Friday, but notched strong gains over the week that saw record highs from German and French shares, while investors also analysed a U.S. jobs report for clues on the global monetary policy outlook.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.43 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.02 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.15 percent.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed lower on Friday after touching record highs during the session, with high-flying chip stocks going into reverse and a mixed labor market report that showed more new jobs than expected with a rising unemployment rate.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.18% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.65% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 1.16% percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields dipped after not-too-hot, not-too-cold U.S. jobs data reinforced the conviction that the Federal Reserve will begin easing by mid-year.
The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell to its lowest since Feb. 2 but in late trade was only down 0.3 basis points from Thursday at 4.09%.
The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with rate expectations, fell to its lowest since Feb. 7, and was last 2.8 basis points lower at 4.486%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices surged to another record high on Friday as data showing a rise in the U.S. unemployment rate boosted expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates soon.
Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,170.55 per ounce by 2:07 p.m. ET (1907 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 0.9% higher to $2,185.50.
Oil prices closed 1% lower on Friday and fell even more for the week as markets remained wary of soft Chinese demand even as producer group OPEC+ extended supply cuts.
Brent crude futures settled down 88 cents, or 1.1%, at $82.08 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) fell 92 cents, or 1.2%, at $78.01.
