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America’s Roundup: Dollar edges lower amid uncertain U.S. outlook, Wall Street gains,Gold gains, Oil slips slightly on rising coronavirus cases, returning Libyan supplies-1st July 2020

Market Roundup

• U.S. consumer confidence in June rises more than expected

• US Redbook (YoY) -5.7%, -6.1% previous

• US Redbook (MoM) -0.7%, -1.4% previous

• US April S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) 4.0%, 4.0% forecast, 3.9% previous

• US April S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) 0.9% ,1.1% previous

• US April S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) 0.3%,  0.5%, 0.5% previous

• US June Chicago PMI 36.6, 45.0 forecast , 32.3 previous

• US June CB Consumer Confidence 98.1 ,91.8 forecast,86.6 previous

• US June Texas Services Sector Outlook 2.1 ,-41.7 previous

• US June Dallas Fed Services Revenues 5.7,  -28.1 previous

• Japan May Housing Starts (YoY)  -12.3%,-15.9% forecast, -12.9% previous

• Japan May Construction Orders (YoY)  -6.1%, -14.2% previous

Looking ahead economic data(GMT)

• 22:30 Australia June AIG Manufacturing Index  41.6 previous

• 22:45 Australia May Building Consents (MoM)  -6.5% previous

• 23:00 Australia Manufacturing PMI 49.8 forecast, 44.0 previous

• 23:00 Japan Tankan All Small Industry CAPEX (Q2)  -15.3% forecast, -11.7% previous

• 23:00 Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q2) -18 forecast, 8 previous

• 23:50 Japan Tankan Big Manufacturing Outlook Index (Q2) -24, -11 previous

•00:30 Japan June Manufacturing PMI 37.8 forecast, 37.8 previous          

• 01:45 China June Caixin Manufacturing PMI  50.5 forecast, 50.7 previous           

Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)

• No significant events

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD: EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Tuesday as markets digested less bearish comments from U.S. monetary officials along with a direr prognosis from the country’s top medical expert on the spread of the novel coronavirus. In early afternoon trading, the dollar index slipped to 97.380. For the quarter and month, the dollar fell 1.6% and nearly 1.0%, respectively. It was the worst monthly performance for the dollar since December. The euro inched lower against the dollar to $1.1234. It was earlier pressured by data showing underlying price pressures dropped again in the euro zone. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1249 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1288 (23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1183 (30 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1165 (38.2 % fib).

GBP/USD: Sterling rebounded on Tuesday from early losses exacerbated by worse than expected UK GDP data, although analysts said its recovery was due to some end-of-quarter rebalancing rather than any improvement in sentiment. Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a plan to fast-track 5 billion pounds ($6.13 billion) of infrastructure investment and slash property planning rules to revive the UK economy but that had been expected and had little impact. The pound was last up 0.5% against the dollar at $1.2362 and 0.7% versus the euro at 90.83 pence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2313 (50% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2383 (9 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2164 (Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2100 (Psychological level).

USD/CAD :The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday, giving up some of this month's gain, as Sino-U.S. tensions rose and domestic data showed a record economic contraction in April due to the coronavirus pandemic. Canada's real gross domestic product plunged 11.6% in April from March, data from Statistics Canada showed. The decline was less than the 13% predicted by analysts, but a flash estimate for a 3% rebound in May was more muted than some forecasters had expected. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.2% lower at 1.3678 to the greenback. The currency, which is on track to rise 0.7% in June, traded in a range of 1.3652 to 1.3699.  Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3626 (38.2% fib) break can trigger rise towards 1.3718 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3550 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3467 (23.6% fib).

USD/JPY: The dollar gained against the Japanese yen on Tuesday as dollar was buoyed by upbeat home sales data. Contracts to buy U.S. previously owned homes rose by the highest percentage on record in May. But they remained below their February level and were down compared with May 2019, which also kept alive expectations for even more economic stimulus. It is an important week for U.S. data, with the ISM manufacturing index on Wednesday and monthly payrolls on Thursday, moved up a day due to observance of the Independence Day holiday on Friday. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is also testifying on Tuesday. Strong resistance can be seen at 108.00 (Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 108.06 (38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 107.39 (5 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 107.00 (Psychological level).

Equities Recap

European stocks slipped on Tuesday, with banks and energy firms leading the losses at the end of a strong quarter, while UK markets took a hit from a worse-than-expected GDP reading.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by  0.90 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.64 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.19 percent.                 

The S&P 500 on Tuesday inched closer to finish its best quarter in more than two decades as improving economic data restored faith in a stimulus-backed rebound for the U.S. economy.


Dow Jones closed up  by  0.86% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 1.54 % percent, Nasdaq settled up  by 1.87% percent.

Treasuries Recap

U.S. Treasury yields headed lower on Tuesday as investors fixated on a continued surge in the nation's coronavirus cases that could dampen hopes for an economic rebound.

The benchmark 10-year yield was last down 1.4 basis points at 0.6217%, while the yield on the five-year note,which hit a record low of 0.266% earlier in the session, was last down 1.4 basis points at 0.2673%.

Commodities Recap

Gold surged to its highest in nearly 8 years on Tuesday as mounting fears of a resurgence of new coronavirus cases kept safe-haven demand for gold alive, setting the precious metal on path for its biggest quarterly gain since March 2016.

Spot gold   jumped 0.5% to $1,779.44 per ounce by 2:09 p.m. EDT (1809 GMT). The session high was $1,785.46, its highest since October 2012. U.S. gold futures  settled up 1.1% at $1,800.5

Oil prices slipped on Tuesday as investors worried that rising COVID-19 cases would hurt demand while supply could rise with a potential resurgence of Libyan oil production, which has slowed to a trickle since the start of the year.

The more-active September contract for Brent was down 5 cents at $41.80 a barrel by 1:31 p.m. EST (1731 GMT), after gaining 92 cents in the previous session. The August contract, which expires on Tuesday, fell 52 cents, or 1.2%, to $41.19.

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