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America's Roundup: Dollar buoyed by caution as trade deal optimism wanes, Wall Street gains, Gold slips, Oil prices gain 2% despite concerns about rising supplies-November 16th,2019

Market Roundup

• Investors await details of Sino-U.S. trade deal progress

• Oil prices gain 2% despite concerns about rising supplies

• Market awaits U.S. Fed minutes next week

• US Oct Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.2%,0.4% forecast, -0.1% previous    

• US Oct Export Price Index (MoM)  -0.1%,-0.1%  forecast, -0.2%               previous

• US Export Price Index (YoY) -2.2%,-1.6% previous        

• US Import Price Index (YoY) -3.0%,-1.6% previous

• US Nov NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 2.90, 5.00 forecast, 4.00 previous

• US Oct Retail Control (MoM) 0.3%,0.3% forecast

• US Oct Retail Sales (YoY) 3.10%,4.07% previous

• US Oct Retail Sales (MoM)  0.3%,0.2% forecast, -0.3%  previous

• US Oct Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) 0.1%,0.4% forecast, -0.1% previous

• Canada Sep Foreign Securities Purchases 4.76B, 4.62B previous

• US Oct Capacity Utilization Rate 76.7%,77.1%   forecast, 77.5% previous

• US Oct Industrial Production (MoM)  -0.8%,-0.4% forecast, -0.3% previous

• US Oct Industrial Production (YoY)  -1.13%,-0.07% previous

• US Oct Manufacturing Production (MoM) -0.6%,-0.6%  forecast, -0.5% previous

• US Sep Business Inventories (MoM)  0.0%,0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous

• US Sep Retail Inventories Ex Auto  0.2%,0.3% previous              

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)        

• No significant data

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

• No events scheduled

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as some optimism for the ongoing trade talks with China bolstered trade-linked currencies like the euro. On the data front,U.S. retail sales rebounded in October, but consumers cut back on purchases of big-ticket household items and clothing, raising questions about the consumer strength currently underpinning the U.S. economy. The euro was up 0.29 percent at $1.1053.The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was 0.16 percent lower at 97.99. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1094 (100 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1184 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0984 (Higher BB), a break below could take the pair towards   1.0900 (Psychological level).

GBP/USD: The pound strengthened against the dollar on Friday, as Brexit Party candidates stood down from over 40 seats not held by the Conservative Party, which traders saw as a move that would help the Conservatives gain a majority in the upcoming UK elections. The pound has been rising in the past week as polls suggested Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative party could win a majority at the Dec. 12 election, which is seen as increasing the chances of the UK leaving the European Union with a deal on Jan. 31. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2964 (Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3000 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2869 (5 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2800 (Psychological level).

USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar was nearly unchanged against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, steadying after it hit a one-month low the day before as investors grew more hopeful of a U.S.-China trade deal. Global stocks rose after White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Thursday that the United States and China were nearing a deal and talking every day.The Bank of Canada last month expressed concern about global trade uncertainty as it cut its economic growth forecasts and left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%. At (1918 GMT), the Canadian dollar was trading 0.11% higherl at 1.3232 to the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3269 (14th Nov high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3300 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3212 (9 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3152 (21 DMA).

USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen on Friday, as dollar was lifted by White House comments that suggested the possibility of an imminent trade deal between Washington and Beijing, which revived hopes that their tariff war may be nearing an end. However, investor sentiment remains fragile after weak data from China reinforced concerns about the global economy and amid increasing caution about false signs of progress in Sino-U.S. trade talks.At 1908 GMT, the dollar was 0.36 percent higher versus the Japanese yen at 108.80. Strong resistance can be seen at 108.86 (11 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 109.00 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 108.18 (50 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 107.66 (100 DMA).

Equities Recap

European shares clocked a sixth-straight week of gains on Friday following record highs on Wall Street after bullish comments from a White House official on U.S.-China trade talks.

The UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.14 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.47 percent, and France’s CAC finished the day down  by 0.65 percent.

U.S. stock index futures rose on Friday, as positive comments related to the U.S.-China trade talks and strong earnings from semiconductor industry bellwether Applied Materials put the S&P 500 and Dow on track to hit fresh highs.

At (19:27 GMT) Dow Jones was up by 0.60 percent, S&P 500 was up by 0.60 percent, Nasdaq was  up by 0.64 percent.

Treasuries Recap

U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday as fresh hopes that the United States and China will reach a deal to de-escalate their trade war boosted risk appetite, and reduced demand for U.S. government bonds.

Ten-year note yields rose to 1.973% on November 7, which was the highest since August 1, and have climbed from.670% on November 1.

Commodities Recap

Gold prices were on track to break a three-session winning streak on Friday, as stock markets hit record highs following comments from U.S. officials that progress was being made on the "phase one" trade agreement with China.

 Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,467.48 per ounce at 12:54 p.m. EST (1754 GMT). U.S. gold futures  were down 0.4% at $1468.20 per ounce.

Oil futures gained nearly 2% on Friday as comments from a top U.S. official raised optimism for a U.S.-China trade deal, but worries about increasing crude supplies capped prices.

Benchmark Brent crude gained $1.13, or 1.8%, to $63.41 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude rose 93 cents, or 1.6%, to $57.70 a barrel.

Brent and WTI were both on track to post their second straight weekly gain. Brent was due to rise 1.4%, and WTI was set to gain 0.8%.

By Srikanth G
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