Market Roundup
• US Building Permits (MoM) (Oct) -0.4%, -0.6% forecast, -3.1% previous
• US Building Permits (Oct) 1.419M, 1.416M forecast, 1.425M previous
• Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Oct) 0.5%, 0.9% forecast, 0.8% previous
• US Redbook (YoY) 4.9%, 5.1% previous
• US House Price Index (YoY) (Sep) 4.4%, 4.4% previous
• US House Price Index (MoM) (Sep) 0.7%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
• US House Price Index (Sep) 430.3, 427.4 previous
• US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) (Sep) 0.2%, 0.3% previous
• US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Sep) -0.4%, -0.3% previous
• US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Sep) 4.6%, 4.7% previous, 5.2% prior
• US CB Consumer Confidence (Nov) 111.7, 111.8 forecast, 109.6 previous
• US New Home Sales (MoM) (Oct) -17.3%, 7.0% previous
• US New Home Sales (Oct) 610K, 725K forecast, 738K previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 00:30 Australia Construction Work Done (QoQ) (Q3) 0.4% forecast, 0.1% previous
•00:30 Australia Weighted Mean CPI (YoY) (Oct) 2.50% forecast, 2.10% previous
•01:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 4.25% forecast, 4.75% previous
•01:30 Chinese Industrial Profit YTD (Oct) -3.5% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 01:00 New Zealand RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
•01:00 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement
•02:00 New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro weakened on Tuesday following warnings from Portuguese central bank chief Mario Centeno and European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos about stagnating growth and the potential impact of tariffs.European Central Bank policymaker Olli Rehn also highlighted that wage growth and services inflation in the eurozone remain elevated, which could slow the moderation of overall price growth more than currently anticipated.Additionally, the common currency faced pressure from the escalating conflict in Ukraine, with G7 ministers reaffirming their support and the United States ramping up security assistance to strengthen the country's defenses. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0489(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0533(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0427`(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0400(Psychological level)
GBP/USD: The pound slipped lower on Tuesday, amid firmer Treasury yields, ongoing geopolitical risks and concerns that President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs will lead to trade wars.Officials from Mexico, Canada and China warned that imposing hefty tariffs on goods would harm the economies of all involved and would risk aggravating inflation and damaging job markets.Minutes of the Fed's Nov. 6-7 meeting showed participants less worried about the downside risks to jobs market and economy, seeing it as appropriate to lower rates gradually. The pound on Friday fell to a six-month low of $1.2475 in the wake of weak UK retail sales data, which raised the prospect of deeper Bank of England rate cuts.Sterling has also suffered as the dollar has climbed in the wake of Trump's victory, with his tariffs expected to support the U.S. currency next year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2612(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2721(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2485 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2438(Lower BB)
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar clawed back some of its decline against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as investors weighed the likelihood of hefty trade tariffs pledged by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on Canadian products being implemented. Trump on Monday said he would impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico until they clamped down on drugs, particularly fentanyl, and migrants crossing the border. Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Rhys Mendes said that if Trump follows through on his threat it would have an impact on both economies and the central bank would incorporate those into its economic forecasts.Investors expect the BoC to ease its benchmark interest rate by quarter a percentage point at its next policy decision on Dec. 11, with the market pricing in a roughly 20% chance of a larger move. Immediate resistance can be seen at 14069(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4103(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3981(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3896 (61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against the yen on Tuesday as Japanese yen strengthen on safe haven demand amid U.S. tariff worries. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on Monday pledged big tariffs on the United States' three largest trading partners Canada, Mexico and China detailing how he will implement campaign promises that could trigger trade wars. The Japanese government maintained its assessment that the economy is recovering moderately on Tuesday, while cautioning about the potential impact of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's policies on the economic outlook.US Inflation will be in focus on Wednesday, with the release of the key U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure followed closely by the Federal Reserve. Minutes released on Tuesday covering the latest Fed meeting showed central bank officials appeared divided over how much farther they may need to cut interest rates. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.00(Psychological level) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.66(23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.08(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.57(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks were rattled on Tuesday after President-elect Donald Trump pledged steep tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, threatening the industry's tightly knit supply chains and raising investor concerns of higher costs.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.40 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.56 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.87 percent.
Wall Street stocks, led by S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, ended higher on Tuesday, as technology stocks rebounded, while investors digested President-elect Donald Trump's tariff pledges on top trade partners and the latest minutes from the Federal Reserve.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.28% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 057% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.62% percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices closed lower, extending Monday's losses in volatile trading, after news of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, which helped reduce oil's risk premium.
U.S. crude settled down 0.25% at $68.77 a barrel and Brent ended at $72.81 per barrel, down 0.27% on the day.
Gold prices struggled on Tuesday, dropping to week's low as ceasefire eases safe-haven demand, while Ukraine and Trump tariff concerns limit declines.
Spot gold was steady at $2,626.83 per ounce as of 02:07 p.m. ET (1906 GMT), erasing some of the earlier losses when prices hit their lowest since Nov. 18. U.S. gold futures settled 0.1% higher at $2,621.30.
