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Altseason is still hard to find in late 2025, as both institutional and retail inflows are heavily favoring Bitcoin and Ethereum. This is keeping BTC dominance at around 59% and ETH at 13% of total crypto market cap - levels that have historically been associated with the stifling of broad altcoin rotations. The recent market events, such as the $2 billion in liquidations during a BTC drawdown, are very much in line with this trend: traders are getting rid of their higher-beta alts and perpetuals positions but at the same time, they are quickly reallocating to majors, thus a dominance shift is being prevented. This focus on concentration is what is putting altcoins on the bench and any incidental rallies will probably be confined to some large-caps rather than the entire 2017/2021-style runs.
The postponement is due to the presence of structural factors that are holding tight the major assets, among them there are spot BTC/ETH ETFs and corporate treasuries which are the main factors that anchor capital in the top two thus making the post-parabolic dominance drops less dramatic. In addition to that there are also options flows, compressed basis trades, and a preference for delta-neutral yield strategies that signal the presence of a certain level of caution in the face of the current macro uncertainties (e.g., Fed, BoJ, CPI) which is the reason why the majors are preferred to the directional alt bets. The situation limits the risk appetite on the long end of the curve, and the participants are choosing to do funding trades in low-caps rather than go for widespread alt speculation.
An altseason will happen only when BTC dominance is significantly lower (e.g., below mid-50s) and it will be accompanied by a sustained ETH/BTC uptrend, thus indicating the real rotation. Some of the main factors clearing the way could be a macro all-clear with easing firmly in place, BTC consolidation with lower volatility, strong ETH/L2 narratives supported by sector ETFs or staking, and most importantly, a clear institutional diversification beyond BTC/ETH. Until then, one should expect a majors-first regime to be in place which will limit the broad alt potential.
