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Artificial intelligence is poised to reignite growth in U.S. e-commerce, according to analysts at Bernstein. After years of pandemic-driven disruption and sluggish recovery, online retail is expected to regain momentum, powered by AI shopping assistants and visual search technologies.
Between 2022 and 2024, U.S. online gross merchandise value (GMV) grew at an average of 8.5% annually—roughly half the pre-pandemic rate. Growth is projected to slow to 7% in 2025. However, AI-driven innovations could add 150 to 250 basis points to the sector’s five-year compound annual growth rate. By 2030, online sales are forecast to represent 22% of total U.S. retail, up from 16% today, implying an 8.5% yearly growth rate through the decade.
Bernstein identifies Amazon and Walmart as key winners, thanks to their scale and essential retail focus. Low-cost platforms like Shein and Temu also stand to benefit. Meanwhile, discretionary-focused marketplaces such as Etsy, Wayfair, and eBay continue to trail.
AI is expected to reduce friction in the shopping experience by enhancing product discovery and personalized recommendations. This could lead to higher consumer spending concentration on major platforms, further consolidating market share.
Despite slower overall growth, rising sector profitability is drawing investor attention. E-commerce stock valuations are returning to historical norms, with analysts forecasting strong earnings growth—led by Amazon—as companies shift from expansion to optimizing returns.
Sectors like grocery, healthcare, and personal care remain strong, cushioning weaknesses in apparel and home furnishings. As AI shopping tools mature, they’re expected to reshape consumer behavior and reaccelerate digital retail’s long-term trajectory.
