A Shift in Focus: Ceasefire Stability Meets Crude Inventory Reports

Crude oil prices pared most of its gains after US crude inventories. It hit a low of $68.20 and currently trading around $68.69.

As of November 27, 2024, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that crude oil inventories fell by 1.844 million barrels for the week ending November 22, exceeding market expectations of a 1.3 million barrel drop. This decline suggests stronger demand or lower supply, which could boost oil prices. The previous week, crude inventories had increased by 0.545 million barrels, indicating a temporary surplus. Currently, total U.S. crude oil inventories are about 422.7 million barrels, roughly 4% below the five-year average for this time. Additionally, gasoline stocks rose by 2.054 million barrels, but distillate fuel stocks decreased by 0.114 million barrels, showing mixed trends in fuel demand.

The recent ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, brokered by the United States and France, will take effect on November 27, 2024. This announcement has eased concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply from the Middle East, which is vital for global oil production. Traders are more confident that the ceasefire will help stabilize the region and create more predictable energy flows. Overall, this development is favorable for the oil markets.

Major resistance for crude oil is at $70.30; breaching this level could push prices up to $70.59, $71.45, or $72.60. A significant trend reversal would only occur if prices rise above $73. Near-term support is around $68, and if this level is broken, targets could drop to $67, or $66/$65.30. According to the 4-hour chart indicators, the ADX , and the CCI (50) is bearish.

Trading Strategy

It may be wise to consider selling on rallies between $71.50 and $71.55, with a stop loss set at around $72.50 and a take-profit target of $67.