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Worrisome Signs Series: Downgrades aren’t worrying, the composition is

Last week, we covered a report from rating agency Standard & Poor that global corporate defaults in first quarter of 2016 has hit highest YTD level since 2009, aftermath of great recession. Large portions of them are from commodities’ space, which is hardly surprising.

So, if almost 40 corporates around world, in first quarter had to shut shop and most due to lower commodities’ prices, can it be surprising if we include corporates of all sizes into calculations including commercial bankruptcies. Doing so, that number soared to 9,208. That is 24% more than a year ago level. For March alone, the number stands at 3,351.

So, if defaults are on the rise, so will be the downgrades.

But a time when, sovereign giants like Saudi Arabia are suffering, it is probably not that surprising that there are so many downgrades and bankruptcies.

Concerns, however lie elsewhere, when we dissect the downgrades list.

In the first quarter, of all the companies downgraded by standard & Poor, in S&P 500, only 45% of them are from energy space and rest 55% are not. Now that is something scary. It is possible, the very weakness in energy space and global economy, may have started affecting companies beyond the weak sectors.

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