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The University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment fell to 85.7 in the preliminary September estimate (previous: 91.9), giving back a year of gains that were driven by low gasoline prices and better labor markets. The current conditions index declined to 100.3 (previous: 105.1), and the expectations component fell to 76.4 (previous: 83.4).
"On balance, we see this morning's weaker-than-expected reading as a delayed reaction to the uptick in financial market volatility and concerns over economic growth abroad. The final August estimate included some survey results that should have encompassed these developments, but the September commentary clearly reflects a concern on the part of consumers that we were surprised not to find in last month's results", says Barclays.
Current personal finances fell to 109 (previous: 120), and expected personal finances declined to 119 (previous: 124). The 12-month economic outlook slid to 95 (previous: 111), as the longer-term outlook decreased to 92 (previous: 100). Both sets of indicators suggest that negative news flow has affected consumers' near-term economic outlook, but the longer-term outlook remains more stable.
Additionally, indicators of current purchasing sentiment remained relatively steady against the deterioration in the economic outlook. Buying conditions for durables was nearly unchanged at 151 (previous: 152). Vehicle (134, previous: 139) and home buying sentiment (154, previous: 159) registered only modest declines in early September. Elsewhere, year-ahead (2.9%, previous: 2.8%) and longer-term inflation expectations (2.8%, previous: 2.7%) both rose one-tenth from last month.
"We look to the final September survey results for any evidence of significant pass-through from weaker sentiment to actual purchasing activity, but expect robust income and job growth to outweigh these factors in actual consumption data", added Barclays.
