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USD/JPY likely to trade above 120

The Japanese trade balance currently reflects Japan's difficult situation. Since the start of Q2 the trade balance has been falling again. Due to the low demand from Japanese trade partners, exports are in decline again. However, imports also disappointed which is pointing towards weak economic momentum at home. 

Today's September data confirmed this impression. For the time being the continued optimistic comments on the part of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are keeping a lid on speculation about further monetary policy easing. 

"But if new economic momentum does not arise soon the Japanese officials will have to come up with something. It seems unlikely that a weaker yen will not be part of the strategy this time round. Sooner or later USD-JPY should regain the area above 120", argues Commerzbank. 

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