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The USD/INR currency pair is expected to trade higher towards the 66.0 mark with increasing odds to rally through the psychological resistance, according to the latest report from Scotiabank. Crude oil prices are set to rise further by taking into account heavy net long positions of non-commercial oil futures.
In addition, Brent oil prices remain in "backwardation" with near-term prices higher than those for delivery in the future, indicating further upside potential for oil prices. Reuters reported on Thursday that a joint OPEC and non-OPEC technical panel finds a global oil glut has been virtually eliminated thanks in part to an OPEC-led supply cut deal in place since January 2017.
Earlier on Wednesday, Reuters exclusively cited three industry sources as saying that top oil exporter Saudi Arabia would be happy to see oil prices rising to USD80 or even USD100 a barrel. OPEC and its partners will be meeting on June 22 to review policy after a ministerial monitoring panel meeting set for April 20.
Further, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday released the minutes of the April 4-5 meeting that is more hawkish than the statement published earlier on April 5, which is negative for Indian bonds and the INR in our view. The MPC noted that growth has been recovering and the output gap is closing.
While Executive Director Michael Debabrata Patra maintained his vote for a 25 bps rate rise, Deputy Governor Viral V. Acharya has moved substantially closer to switching from the neutral stance to begin the process of withdrawal of accommodation, in view of macroeconomic developments including relatively high oil prices and growing economic activities since the last MPC meeting.
Meanwhile, RBI Governor Urjit Patel also said that “even as inflation has moderated in recent months, several upside risks to inflation persist,” according to the minutes, the report added.
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