USD/CNY likely to trade around 6.98 by end-2017, says Lloyds Bank

In the past month, the USD/CNY pair has traded in a range of 6.87-6.91. But since the beginning of 2017, the currency pair has gradually increased from its January’s low of 6.83. Weaker-than-expected economic data in the past month have again raised worries regarding devaluation in an attempt to stimulate economic activity, noted Lloyds Bank.

These worries, at this stage, are believed to be overdone, greatly because of tighter liquidity conditions in China and recent attempts to stem portfolio outflows. China’s policymakers might depend on looser monetary policy rather than the currency to stimulate growth. Overall, the Chinese yuan has greatly underperformed other Asia currencies since the beginning of this year. This might alleviate pressure on the People’s Bank of China to devalue to keep external competitiveness.

“We do view the CNY as modestly overvalued and forecast USD/CNY to end the year at 6.98”, added Lloyds Bank.