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USD/CNY likely to test 7.0 by end of 2016

China central bank PBoC's FX intervention cannot continue indefinetely. The GDP growth is widening , inflation and interest rate differentials also point out for a higher USD/CNY. 

RMB's inclusion into the IMF SDR basket should help the currency to outperform within the region however as it might create a virtuous circle. If the SDR status combines with further measures, it will lead to more accumulation of RMB assets by reserve managers and boost reserve status of RMB, rising the desire of reserve managers and investors to hold more of it.

"By the end of 2016, we expect the benchmark 1-year lending rate to be at 4.10% and the RRR (for major banks) to be at 15.5% and we expect USD/CNY to be testing 7.0 due to a mix of cyclical USD strength as well as domestic factors", says RBC Capital Markets in a research note. 

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