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U.S. nonfarm payrolls likely to have risen in February, jobless rate to have stabilized at 4.1 pct

The U.S. nonfarm payrolls are likely to have risen respectably in the month of February. According to a TD Economics research report, nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen 175k, recording a rate slightly lower than the six-month average trend. The jobless rate is expected to have stabilized at 4.1 percent though unrounded figures should show a fall.

All eyes are on average hourly earnings after the January upside surprise that left wage growth tracking at 2.9 percent year-on-year. With the 12th of the month landing on a Monday, calendar effects are favorable in February for a solid 0.3 percent sequential print. But there is scope for disappointment as monthly readings have a high tendency to mean revert, while any wage rises in responses to tax reform are likely insignificant in the aggregate.

“We expect a 0.2 percent m/m increase, leaving the y/y pace lower at 2.7 percent vs 2.9 percent. Downward revisions cannot be excluded as well, which point to further downside risk to the y/y figure”, added TD Economics.

At 21:00 GMT the FxWirePro's Hourly Strength Index of US Dollar was neutral at -14.012. For more details on FxWirePro's Currency Strength Index, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex

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