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US data continue to show progress and the downward pressure on the unemployment rate is set to continue. Weak labour productivity and a low participation rate should ensure lower unemployment, even with a temporary slowdown in GDP growth.
The job growth is expected at 205,000 in August, which is in line with consensus. Overall, labour market indicators released lately have been solid, with jobless claims data trending sideways at a low level and the Conference Board's labour market differential at its most favourable level since January 2008.
"We estimate that the unemployment rate declined from 5.3% to 5.2% and is thereby approaching the Fed's NAIRU of 5%. We expect unemployment to undershoot the FOMC's projection for this year and next. This is a key reason we think the Fed will initiate its tightening cycle in December this year and proceed at a faster pace than the two hikes currently factored in by the market", says Dankske Bank.
