U.S. headline payrolls likely rose in April, jobless rate to have remained unchanged at 4.5 pct - Barclays

Headline payrolls in the U.S. are likely to have increased in April. According to a Barclays research report, payrolls are expected to have risen 225,000, most of which are likely to have come from the private sector. The employment report for March had come in below expectations; however, that weakness was temporary. After a weak first quarter, the data is likely to improve in the second quarter.

In April, several large states registered significant improvement in initial claims after recording notable declines in employment in March. Missouri, Ohio and Pennsylvania shed around 34,000 jobs in March, with most of the losses being recorded in retail trade, construction and leisure & hospitality. The timing of the Easter/Passover holiday might have added to the decline in retail trade and leisure categories, noted Barclays.

Fall in construction in those states was because weather conditions returned to normal in March following very warm weather in January and February. Both the holiday timing and weather effects should give modest stimulus to April employment.

“We expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.5 percent; average hourly earnings to increase 0.3 percent m/m and 2.7 percent y/y; and average weekly hours to increase 0.1pp, to 34.4”, added Barclays.