US federal government posts deficit of $136.5bn in October

The US Treasury reported a federal deficit of $136.5bn for October, in line with economists' estimates ($137bn) and modestly above median consensus expectations ($132bn). Relative to the same period one year ago, the October deficit was $14.8bn larger this year. Receipts declined 0.8% y/y while spending rose 3.9% y/y.

Economists note that the time-shifting of payments in October affected this comparison, however. Adjusting for calendar effects, the October 2015 deficit represents an increase of $20bn. The October data bring the 12-month rolling deficit to $453.7bn, up from $438.9bn last month.

"We expect the federal deficit to remain near these levels; we forecast a fiscal-year deficit of $450bn for both FY 2015 and FY 2016. This, combined with our forecast of nominal GDP growth of 4-5%, should lead the deficit as a share of GDP to fall slightly to 2.4%, says Barclays.