US federal government posts budget surplus of $51.8bn in June

The US federal government reported a monthly budget surplus of $51.8bn for June, in line with CBO analysis and consensus expectations. Receipts were up 6.0% y/y for the month, while spending grew 15% y/y. The monthly surplus in June compares with $70.5bn reported for the same period last year. 

CBO analysis notes that the June 2014 figures were affected by the time-shifting of payments, without which, the monthly surplus would have been an estimated $35.0bn. Comparing these adjusted statistics shows the improvement in the US fiscal position over the past year. Growth in budget receipts over that time frame was driven by a 7% rise in individual incomes and payroll taxes, as well as 5% growth in corporate income taxes. Outlays for entitlements, including Medicare (10% y/y), Medicaid (13% y/y), and Social Security (4% y/y), continue to drive aggregate spending; however, these spending items were offset by a $19.0bn receipt from spectrum auctions in June. The June data bring the 12-month rolling deficit to $430.9bn, or about 2.4% of GDP. 

"We expect the deficits to stabilize around current levels over the next quarter, in line with our FY 15 forecast for a federal deficit of $425.0bn," says Barclays.