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The United States economy is expected to grow by 2.3 percent this year and 2.9 percent by next. The globally synchronized economic expansion will continue through year-end 2017. U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.0 percent annualized rate in the third quarter of 2017, or 0.7 percent quarter-over-quarter, Comerica Bank reported.
As the global expansion continues, so does concern about debt accumulation, which is both a symptom and a cause of the current benign economic environment. Rising debt levels in Asia have drawn warnings from global economic institutions, including the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
Accompanying the synchronized global expansion, there is a synchronized monetary policy normalization. The U.S. Federal Reserve looks all but certain to raise the benchmark fed funds rate range again on December 13. It has begun the process of reversing the substantial crisis-driven increase in its balance sheet.
We expect the Powell Fed to raise rates again in 2018. The Bank of England just raised its benchmark bank rate for the first time in a decade, while the European Central Bank will reduce its asset purchases in January, but have not yet proposed a tapering strategy.
The U.S. awaits tax reform. The House of Representatives bill is now in the hands of the Senate, which will use the reconciliation process to try to pass something before the end of this year. There has already been pushback on limiting the mortgage interest deduction and eliminating the state and local tax deduction. Some experts warn that the proposed 20 percent corporate tax rate is too low and will destabilize the federal budget deficit, potentially making our federal debt unsustainable.
"We believe that the Senate will be under enormous pressure to do something and that the final tax bill will retain the broad contours of the House plan. Failure of tax reform could result in a reset of current high business and consumer confidence. An infrastructure bill for 2018 remains on the Trump Administration’s wish list. We expect to see something featuring public-private partnerships and possibly asset sales," the report said.
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