US Q1 growth was likely hit by unseasonably cold weather

US Personal spending rose 0.1% m/m in nominal terms in February (forecast: 0.3%), as real PCE fell 0.1% m/m. 

Vehicle sales rebounded strongly in March to 17.1mn (forecast: 16.8mn), suggesting the February weather was to blame for weak sales last month. 

The trade deficit narrowed sharply to $35.4bn in February on the West Coast port strike, but the real goods deficit narrowed just $4bn to $50.8bn. Relative to Q4 levels, trade data through February suggest that trade will still drag on Q1 growth, although slightly less than previously expected.

The February factory orders report revised down core capital goods shipments in January, suggesting less equipment investment. 

"Recent data releases continue to suggest that the weather dampened Q1 growth. We expect GDP growth to slow to 1.5% q/q saar in Q1, owing mainly to adverse weather conditions, and forecast a rebound to 3.0% growth in Q2." - Barclays Capital notes in a report on Friday