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UK gilts slump as benchmark FTSE 100 jumps on BOE’s rate cut hopes

The UK gilts slumped on Thursday as the benchmark FTSE 100 stock index jumped to 11-month high on the Bank of England rate cut expectations. Also, firm crude oil prices drove-out investors from safe-haven assets.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year gilt rose 2 basis points to 0.768 percent, the yield on super-long 30-year bonds also jumped 2 basis points to 1.620 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year bonds bounced nearly 1 basis point to 0.133 percent by 09:20 GMT.

The Bank of England is expected to ease interest rates in its monetary policy meeting scheduled to be held on today at 11:00 GMT in an attempt to ease the growing anxiety over the possible breakdown after the Brexit outcome. Also, the BoE Governor Mark Carney had signaled the need for some easing over the summer, that raised hopes of such an action.

The UK as it could herald the first BoE Bank Rate cut since Feb 2009. There is a low probability, but non-negligible risk, that the central bank also resumes its programme of asset purchases, financed through reserves issuance, although this is more likely in August.

So it is likely that we see a 25 basis points rate cut on Thursday that takes the Bank Rate down to a record low 0.25 percent. We foresee the central bank will also lower the marginal lending facility rate by 25 basis points to 0.50 percent, but look for the deposit facility rate to be kept at its current rate of zero.

Today, crude oil prices rebounded on weak US dollar and lower than expected US crude oil stockpiles. The International benchmark Brent futures rose 1.06 percent to $46.75 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) jumped 1.03 percent to $45.21 by 09:20 GMT.

Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 trading higher 0.80 percent at 6,724 by 09:20 GMT.

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